Hey, first I appreciate the long and informative post.
RSGP in general, I only see it going downhill. Of course, there will be some minor surges with updates such as the bot nuke, but it's become apparent that Jagex has changed. When I started playing in late 2003, RSGP was close to $30-40 per million.
Well, back then there were a lot less RSGP in the game. Now, although there is a ton more coming in (Alching mainly), RSGP should go lower. But there are things balancing inflation, which is Coinshare. What it basically is, is when a team gets a drop (I think it's 10M+) it gets put into the Grand Exchange and sells for the highest buying offer. In return, the team gets pure coins, but 5% disappears. So let's say a corp team got a divine sigil right now, it sells for 400M, 20M of it disappears and the rest goes to the team.
So it's still basically combating inflation. With more bots around, there were more things you can alch. More things you can alch means there are more supply than demand, which means minimal loss when alching. Minimal loss on alching drives a player to alch and get their magic level higher while it's cheap. Which means more gold gets pumped into the game.
So where exactly do I see it going without any major updates by Jagex? It should be fairly stable over the summer with some increases in demand, but after the summer it will drop.
Could I just add, in case you forgot or didn't know, that there are major updates coming into Runescape. One would be that Bounty Hunter. What it basically is doing is it's increasing the price of pk supplies. Whips have already doubled in price.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe GP is slightly higher than normal, because people have invested their money into said items. Including godswords, with the combat rework, Runescape could change completely. Bandos Godsword is already above the 5M mark (From 2.7M). AGS is already below the 15M mark (From 25M). So people are buying out these godswords, hoping to make a profit in what I'd call a long term investment. And until they dump, I see less gold being sold to major gold sellers.
Now rares have taken a huge dive. People have dumped and invested in other items, everything expensive is dropping. Torva, Virtus, Divine are all dropping because of the combat rework. So I only see people losing money. People have lost anywhere from 10%-35% of their bank if they cashed out their items. I think they'd be looking to make it back, having hopes of course, before they sell majority of their gold, which they would invest, to someone here.
it appears that there's a new wave of stock coming in, so prices should drop and stabilize back to where they were soon.
Now there are 2 kinds of players on Runescape. One that got stuck with bad investment, and others that dumped in time. My guess is the new wave are from people that's dumped already.
Bot nuke #2 is coming out soon, which means GP would go back up again. Not by much, but all it does is cause players to hoard commonly botted items in hopes of making profit. With their GP tied up, they are unable to sell temporarily.
I'm a little tired. I just typed as I thought, I may have contradicted myself somewhere.