What about the GOLD?!?!

[Themaulpure]

Right before the trade limit was initiated, Gold was at $.5 per mill. Mostly this was because people were desperate to sell before they enacted the limit... I predict $1 per mill.

 

[Reeser]

I think it will go up over time. Here is my reasoning.

- currently, GP is only necessary for things like rares or possibly buying certain skills. However most people, unless they are merchers, had no need for huge amounts of gp or rares.
- with the reintroduction of free trade, people who were previously reluctant to buy gp because of all the difficulties (needing certain requirements, an xfer method, handing over your account to a gold seller, and need to not play your account for a while), will be more than willing to purchase gold due to how easy it will be.
-Staking alone should cause a huge influx in GP buyers. staking is an addictive hobby, and very few people are good at staking. As such, they will buy more so they can fuel their staking habits, since it is an enjoyable hobby.

As such, these are a few of the reasons why I believe gold will rise within a month or two of the release of free trade and staking.

Since you're an expert on Rs gold and merching and stuff, should I keep my blue h'ween on my pure? Or should I keep trying to sell it for min and just bot back the cash. All the masks and santas are dropping like crazy. Thanks if you can reply.

 

[Plznate]

Since you're an expert on Rs gold and merching and stuff, should I keep my blue h'ween on my pure? Or should I keep trying to sell it for min and just bot back the cash. All the masks and santas are dropping like crazy. Thanks if you can reply.

honestly, depends on how long you are willing to wait. I imagine that given the new updates, all rares will "crash", meaning that they are not worth what they previously were worth in street value. If I were you, I would sell your rares for price now, then try and buy more rares with that money you recieved during the rares crash, since after the initial crash, they WILL rise, as is the inevitable fate of any rare in RS.

 

[Anarion]

My believe gold will crash because of vast amount of gold. Then it will rise because of the demand and lose of the main source of gold which is pvp items. Only source when free trade comes back will be from alching

 

[sheymyster]

DANG! didn't think this would be so popular! LOL but Plznate, you have a very good point, I was set on the idea it would crash because everyone would be able to sell and the noob that has 5mil gp and cant afford membership next month will always undercut you, but after a little while, i guess the gold will start to depreciate out of the economy and it will become more item oriented. I know of plenty of people who stake ALOT of wealth against near the same value, and some1 has to lose, and he will want his money back right then, not 3 weeks later after botting it up.

Instant Gratification will be the aid to help gold rise back up I assume, and Anarion, I have never really though about this but I like your approach, Besides the measly few coins that some monsters drop, there really isn't much inputing actual gp into the economy beside Alching items. Now millions of gp are rushing in from the various icons and things that give cold hard cash randomly for pvp and bh kills, but with that system gone, All the gold in runescape will stabalize and eventually decline.

Thanks for the input guys, anybody else wanna take a crack at the gold prophecy? Do you think it will go up or down or both??

 

[Emperor Nero]

Logically thinking, because sythe isn't the only gold selling community, the prices will drop some. We will not see a dramatic price drop, but I would say between .50 and $1 because the sweat-shop sites are going to drop their prices and undercut the independent sellers. Though in the end (as someone previously stated) the sellers control the prices, if the price goes up it is because they drive it up. It is kind of like the oil market... It will fluctuate as the economy molds to the new system.

 

[Loffles]

IMO It will raise the real world price.

 

[dsj]

I think it will go up over time. Here is my reasoning.

- currently, GP is only necessary for things like rares or possibly buying certain skills. However most people, unless they are merchers, had no need for huge amounts of gp or rares.
- with the reintroduction of free trade, people who were previously reluctant to buy gp because of all the difficulties (needing certain requirements, an xfer method, handing over your account to a gold seller, and need to not play your account for a while), will be more than willing to purchase gold due to how easy it will be.
-Staking alone should cause a huge influx in GP buyers. staking is an addictive hobby, and very few people are good at staking. As such, they will buy more so they can fuel their staking habits, since it is an enjoyable hobby.

As such, these are a few of the reasons why I believe gold will rise within a month or two of the release of free trade and staking.

^This. Before free trade was removed (aka pre 2007) I remember gold being $2+ a mil. I'm guessing it will rise.

 

[Emperor Nero]

But what you guys are not taking into account is the new traders the market will bring in. Remove the hassle, increase the competition. It will take the trouble out of finding a trading method and will make it much easier for the sellers as well as the buyers.

 

[sheymyster]

I can see where Emporer is coming from and his ideals is what i held close for some time myself. Initially after the update, there will be a mass flow of gp. With limited people knowing decent xfer's, only skilled people who could get new methods weekly could keep there business going, it took patience and it took a vast amount of know-how of the game and of traders on here and other websites to stay on top of the goldselling game, and I commend them on that.

Once free trade is possible, every noob out there with a mil gp or more is going to want to get there piece of the goldselling pie. They don't care how much IRL $$$ they get, they are happy just being capable of gaining real money for game money, and they will sell for practically anything, after all there not trying to get rich here, most will just be doing it to afford next month's membership without having to beg mommy for it.

The only problem with this theory is that with new dangerous wilde and like plznate said, high risk staking matches, I don't think these low amount sells can fuel the market for very long. After all that noob only had a mil and it will be awhile before he can get more, so it's not like they will dominate the market, eventually they will be out of rsgp and the market will once again be handed over to the professional traders. People who can aquire billions of rsgp in small amounts of time will overall rule the gold buying/selling, who knows they might even be the ones primarily buying it off the noobs directly after the update, both eliminating competition, and getting some gold at dirt cheap prices to be later sold for an IRL profit once the market calms down and people start paying legitimate prices per mil again.

All-in-all, I think the drop in IRL gold prices will be temporary, like most have predicted on this thread already, eventually it will be left up to the professional goldfarmers and sellers as to what the trend will be like once it is stable. Either way I don't really care, If it stays cheap, I will buy alot and be on rich ass RS player, if it gets expensive, I will go into the goldselling business and make a few bucks to pay some bills, I'm like a freaking chameleon adapting to the ever changing RS environment seamlessly! lol ok so maybe that was a bit far but you get the idea.

 

[BEYOND REASON]

It will drop for a while until the gold sellers stock starts to lower then it will become worth more.

 

[YoMa]

I'd be fine at
$1 / M.

 

[rigadoog]

Another thing to consider is how there will probably be more gold farmers around due to the greater market and ease of selling. I would be surprised if the price did go up, but I think that that is possible.

 

[Emperor Nero]

It doesn't take a PHD in econometrics and economics to understand the price of gold will go down.

More competition = Price goes down. When you have 5 different legitimate sellers selling gold its easy to charge what you want. When there is 20 it requires people to drop the price of items.

More Supply = Every top dick and harry will be running Sorc's garden on 20 different accounts making 5 million gps p/h and it will be easy to sell. Not to mention people who already have gold with no transfer method looking to sell

less demand = People who bought gold for pures? well they can now transfer from their mains.

Ultimate result? gold goes down. It could easily fall below 1 dollar. Think about the people selling pvp tricks for .50 p/mil they are just as likely to be willing to sell gold for .50 in the mill.

This post seemed reasonable.

I find that the price would stabilize after 2 or so months at a lesser price than it is now because before the Free Trade limit the economy in RS (and IRL) wasn't in hell. You can't compare the old prices because it is a different enviroment.

 

[sheymyster]

Yes, this post does look promising and pure pk244 is a longtime friend, even before he got on sythe, LOL. He has a smart head on him, especially with economics so I trust his judgement, but I still stand behind my theory that although yes, people are practically giving tricks away, but I believe this is out of desperation. When is the last time (besides decanting) there was a decent xfer that lasted longer than a few days that was widespread (i.e. more than just a few prominent gold sellers knew about it)???

The xfer methods have been dry and temporary for quite some time for the general population and 25 cents per mil was still something when you had no other way to get IRL money for it to pay for membership, I believe once the hype settles down, the desperation vanishes and everyone gets used to this new economy, the gold prices will stabalize at a $1/mil or higher rate.

 

[Sacro]

I predict gold will actually increase in value. Many people turn down buying gold now because it's too complicated to buy. If it becomes easier to attain, more gold consumers will pop up, creating more demand.

 

[sheymyster]

This is a valid point I must say, its hard to tell which group will dominate, one minute I want to think that there are so many people desperate to sell a few mils for some IRL cash, but then again, if you scower the RS forums, you realize just how many people play legit, how many people aren't active in an environment such as sythe and that has an effect. When one of those innocent, non-blackmarket players loses his bank in a staked duel, who will he reach out to to restore his former glory? It's the gold sellers, thats who, he will find some1 who can make it all better and he will pay bundles to make it happen instantly, covering up the fact that he lost 100mil to some nooblet in a duel. It's hard to predict which group will be the most abundant though, the gold buyers or the gold sellers, as free trade makes both roles possible for anyone who wants to take it on. I guess we will just have to wait and see, now hurry up JaGeX!!

 

[Emperor Nero]

I predict gold will actually increase in value. Many people turn down buying gold now because it's too complicated to buy. If it becomes easier to attain, more gold consumers will pop up, creating more demand.

Demand will increase but so will the competition for gold selling services, but for maybe the fourth time in this thread, the gold sellers ultimately decide the price. If the sellers with a lot of money buy out the smaller sellers then they will push up the prices of gold, which is probably what will happen. Seeing most gold sellers around here have money to waste, especially if it is going to boost their own money.

 

[«WestSide»]

Kind of hard to determine where the gold price will stand at since:

If free trade comes back, more gold will be sold hence, the prices will rise.
If free trade comes back, more easier to xfer so just about anyone can sell gold and prices will either stay the same or drop since it's difficulty will become simple.

My opinion is it may rise back up to $3.50 like how it was before Jagex butt-fucked the game in 2007.

 

[sheymyster]

$3.50 per mil??? Im sorry guys and any professional goldsellers reading this, don't hate me hate the game, cuz if it gets that high ima have a sweatshop running at my house, child labor is the best labor, and Ima undercut you sons of bitches at $2.50 per mil. no hard fellings though right?