Staking and guaranteed win?

[Scottay]

I have used this method the past few weeks and there has been times where I have dropped in profit a ton, nearly getting cleaned. However I have always managed to bounce back. Now I am almost triple what I started.

 

[General_Kerr]

He's using compound probability.

there is a 1/2 chance you'll lose each time

the second time you can also win or lose, it's 1/2 chance

but the probability that you will win or lose twice in a row is 1/4

1/8, 1/16, etc

the idea is that the only thing required to profit is that you make sure a win would cover all previous losses + Profit
and far more likely than not you will win eventually.

however, this is assuming 50/50 chances for simplicity, unless you are both exactly the same this will be skewed.

 

[Tyler]

There are many ways this could fail.

1. You cant 2x your bet anymore. (this is somewhat likely depending on your betting/spending limits)
2. You reach such a limit to where nobody can take your bet (likely depending on starting bet)

If you have control, this could be a very good method.

 

[Stewfid Noob]

If you have 2bill, and started staking 100k a time. You wont ever get cleaned lol


edit : could this be botted? Lol

 

[Snow Patrol]

Done this a couple time but I have lost up to 11 mage stakes in a row on a maxed account, so you still have a good chance of getting cleaned

 

[dsj]

This method (known as the Martingale or doubling method) has been around for ages. Don't know how you haven't heard of it yet since tons of people have been using it for staking since FT came back, and it's also popular IRL for Roulette. Let me give you some inside information, though: with this method, you ALWAYS end up going bankrupt in the end.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...ability_theory)
I used the doubling method to get up to 900m and then lost 8 times in a row and got cleaned. Here's a rough example of what will happen if you use this method -
Say you're staking 2m at a time and have 250m. If you double each time you lose, you'll go bankrupt if you lose 7 times in a row. There's a 1/128, or .78% chance of losing 7 in a row.

To simplify the above statistics, say that a "round" of betting results in one of two circumstances: you either "win", and receive 2m, or "lose", and go bankrupt (when you "lose" in this scenario it mean's you've lost 7 in a row ). So, theoretically, if you complete 128 rounds of betting, 127 will be a "win", and one of them will be a "lose", and when that lose comes up, you're cleaned.

If you wanted to, say, double your money, to 500m, you'd have to win 2m 125 times. That means that there's a 125/128 (97%) chance that a "lose" will come up and you'll go bankrupt along the way. So if you wanted to double your money, you'd be much better off just staking 250m once, where there's only a 50% chance of going bankrupt.

Overall, the doubling method can be used *somewhat* effectively if you limit yourself and only do a few bets at a time before calling it a day. Even then, though, your luck will eventually run out. The best way to gamble is to set aside a portion of money that you're willing to lose, and when that runs out, or you reach your set goal, you're done.

 

[i like pie]

This method (known as the Martingale or doubling method) has been around for ages. Don't know how you haven't heard of it yet since tons of people have been using it for staking since FT came back, and it's also popular IRL for Roulette. Let me give you some inside information, though: with this method, you ALWAYS end up going bankrupt in the end.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...ability_theory)
I used the doubling method to get up to 900m and then lost 8 times in a row and got cleaned. Here's a rough example of what will happen if you use this method -
Say you're staking 2m at a time and have 250m. If you double each time you lose, you'll go bankrupt if you lose 7 times in a row. There's a 1/128, or .78% chance of losing 7 in a row.

To simplify the above statistics, say that a "round" of betting results in one of two circumstances: you either "win", and receive 2m, or "lose", and go bankrupt (when you "lose" in this scenario it mean's you've lost 7 in a row ). So, theoretically, if you complete 128 rounds of betting, 127 will be a "win", and one of them will be a "lose", and when that lose comes up, you're cleaned.

If you wanted to, say, double your money, to 500m, you'd have to win 2m 125 times. That means that there's a 125/128 (97%) chance that a "lose" will come up and you'll go bankrupt along the way. So if you wanted to double your money, you'd be much better off just staking 250m once, where there's only a 50% chance of going bankrupt.

Overall, the doubling method can be used *somewhat* effectively if you limit yourself and only do a few bets at a time before calling it a day. Even then, though, your luck will eventually run out. The best way to gamble is to set aside a portion of money that you're willing to lose, and when that runs out, or you reach your set goal, you're done.

Okay a couple of things;

1/128 Is not 78% its .0078%

...theoretically, if you complete 128 rounds of betting, 127 will be a "win", and one of them will be a "lose", and when that lose comes up, you're cleaned.

So you're saying that I'm gonna win 127 times in a row? And on that 128th time where I'll lose I'm going to bet 128m and get cleaned? That statement makes zero sense at all. Maybe I'm just not understanding what you're trying to say.

Yes, you will eventually end up back to where you started because you will hit that 1/128, but at that time the next stake would be 512m (which was there before because you had money before you started staking) and the odds of losing would be 1/256. That 1/128 chance does not bankrupt you, it just puts you when you started off.

I understand about the risk of getting cleaned, but if your smart about it the chances are so small its just hard to believe that you would be able to get cleaned until it happens.

As long as you have a huge cash stack and what your betting is a relatively low amount compared to your gold I can't see anything wrong.

 

[Pockets]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Interesting and somewhat relevant.

Basically, if you have a 50/50 chance of winning something, that means you should win 1 out of every 2 games overall. So the fact that you've just lost one game increases your odds of winning the next one in theory. There is always the chance of getting fucked 10x in a row, but the chance of winning 10x in a row should be exactly the same as the chance of losing 10x in a row.

that's not what it says at all

 

[tryce]

this may work you may need alot of support

 

[TAyTAy345]

there is no way this would work. RS isn't programmed to increase your chances after a loss. also there are ways to increase your chances of winning significantly

 

[i like pie]

there is no way this would work. RS isn't programmed to increase your chances after a loss. also there are ways to increase your chances of winning significantly

Rs programing has nothing to do with the probability of winning a 50-50 stake.

 

[Sprawl]

This method doesn't work unless you can afford to lose 10 times in a row. You will have times where you string large amounts of losses in a row.

 

[the_dealer]

This method is good, if you have:

- Funding (a large bank)
- Skills, to a certain degree

You should only do this method in boxing or dicing. And you won't get cleaned, as long as you reset back to your initial bet each time unless you're extremely bad at getting first hit/unlucky.

 

[Burnley]

Method does run a risk but if you have a huge bank roll you can do it but still run a risk but making the risk smaller the bigger your bank roll

 

[The Don Kiluminati]

I used it yesterday, was up 79m then stopped (longest losing streak was 5).

Guess it is only a matter of time for me

 

[ilusions]

Not everyone is willing to double their stake after a win.

 

[S l P]

gona have to disagree with what alot of people are saying because chances are this method will work and you will make money but there is a possibility of getting cleaned very very unlikely tho. but good method

 

[dsj]

Okay a couple of things;

1/128 Is not 78% its .0078%

So you're saying that I'm gonna win 127 times in a row? And on that 128th time where I'll lose I'm going to bet 128m and get cleaned? That statement makes zero sense at all. Maybe I'm just not understanding what you're trying to say.

Yes, you will eventually end up back to where you started because you will hit that 1/128, but at that time the next stake would be 512m (which was there before because you had money before you started staking) and the odds of losing would be 1/256. That 1/128 chance does not bankrupt you, it just puts you when you started off.

I understand about the risk of getting cleaned, but if your smart about it the chances are so small its just hard to believe that you would be able to get cleaned until it happens.

As long as you have a huge cash stack and what your betting is a relatively low amount compared to your gold I can't see anything wrong.

First, I never said 1/128 is 78%, I said .78%. To get the percentage, you divide 1 by 128 to get .0078 then multiply by 100 to get .78%. If you don't know how to do percentages you need to retake 3rd grade math.

Second, I tried to explain things as simply as possible but somehow you still managed to miss the point. I didn't say you were gonna win 127 times in a row...seriously, did you even read what I wrote? I said that, in order to double your money, you would need to
1. win 125 times
2. NEVER lose 7 times IN A ROW
The chance of losing 7 times IN A ROW is 1/128. Therefore, there's a pretty good chance (96%, actually) that somewhere along the road to those 125 wins, that 1/128 chance will pop up, and you'll be done.
And yes, losing 7 times in a row WILL bankrupt you if you start with 250m (unless you'd already won a bunch of money on top of that). Here, I'll illustrate:

Cash - 250m
1. Bet 2m - Lose
Cash: 248m
2. Bet 4m -Lose
Cash: 244m
3. Bet 8m - Lose
Cash: 236m
4. Bet 16m - Lose
Cash: 220m
5. Bet 32m - Lose
Cash: 188m
6. Bet 64m - Lose
Cash: 124m
7. Bet 124m - Lose
Cash: 0m

And voilà, you're bankrupt.
Do you get it now? If I recall correctly, I used this method for almost 2 weeks and got to around 1.3b total bank wealth, doing 10m starting stakes, and then I lost 7 in a row and got cleaned. It was only a matter of time before that 1/128 chance came up, considering how much I was doing it.

Also, you said that AFTER you'd lost 256m, the odds of losing the next bet of 512m would be 1/256. That is incorrect; the odds of losing that next one would be 1/2, just like all the other single bets before that. Basic knowledge of statistics shows that previous occurrences do not effect future ones in a controlled system.

 

[jadakiss]

method makes u have less chance of getting cleand then as to doing your normal random stakes

 

[Stewfid Noob]

This method is pretty terrible now that's i've staked a few times. Are there any other methods people use to avoid getting cleaned while increasing profits?