Staking and guaranteed win?

[i like pie]

EDIT: Misleading Title; Meant Guaranteed Profit.


Let just use maxed boxing as an example. Assuming both participants had equal stats and such there would be a 1/2 chance that one would lose. So if he went to stake again, there would be a 1/4 chance of loosing again, then 1/8 etc... would this be profitable? I did a little test with a coin(heads i win) starting with 10m betting in 1m intervals and here are my results:
(+=win)
(-=lose)
Start= 50m
Bet 1m: + = 51m
Bet 1m: + =52m
Bet 1m: - =51m
Bet 2m: - = 49m
Bet 4m: + =53m
Bet 1m: - =52m
Bet 2m: - =50m
Bet 4m: - =46m
Bet 8m: + =54m
Bet 1m: + =55m
Bet 1m: + =56m
Bet 1m: - =55m
Bet 2m: - =53m
Bet 4m: - =49m
Bet 8m: - =41m
Bet 16m: +=57m
Bet 1m: - =56m
Bet 2m: - =54m
Bet 4m: - =50m
Bet 8m: + =58m
Bet 1m: + =59m
Bet 1m: + =60m
Bet 1m: - =59m
Bet 2m: + =61m
Bet 1m: + =62m

Won: 12 times
Lost: 13 times

Profit: 12m

Depending on how much money your starting off at depends on how much you make every time you win. As in during the example, I won 12 times so I made 12m. If I used 10m and increased to 20m then 40m every time I lost then my profits would be 120m. This will always be true as long as your cash stack is way above your starting bet.


I'm sure this can be tweaked but does this have any actual use like if you multiplied the amounts by 10x or 20x etc... Just throwing this out there :love:

 

[Peetu]

This method doesn't really work, since at one time, the odds will happen, and you will lose 10+ times in a row, even when the chances would be on your side.

 

[Steven22]

you have a 1/500 ish chance of getting 10 losses in a row. itll happen eventually.

 

[JstarD]

Good idea, but this is all to do with chances and Runescape isn't coded to give you a better chance of winning if you've just lost.

Losing twice in a row does have a 1/4 chance, and three times has a 1/8, then 1/16 etc but each stake is independent as its own.
Someone should definitely test this though, good concept

 

[ha1rry1]

I use a simular technique on the dice game, simply double my bet each time until I win. However as previously stated it is flawed and you run the risk of losing every stake.

 

[matthias]

It will not work! Don't use this method trust me..

 

[john cleese]

LOL at this , i study statistics and probabilty in college, this analysis is MAJORLY flawed.

 

[Lured Yah]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

and you explained it quite poorly,

stake 1: 1M - lost
stake 2: 2M - lost
stake 3: 4M - lost
stake 4: 8M - win
profit: 1M
double your bet everytime you lose then reset your starting bet to 1M

this isn't guaranteed profit tho.

 

[Mint Oz]

it's all luck imo

 

[Imagine]

Unless you have a lot to start with, you are guaranteed to get cleaned eventually.

each stake is independent on its own, you do not have a higher chance of winning just because you lost your last one. And losing 10 times in a row is a 1/1024 chance, which if you stake multiple stakes every day, it WILL happen.

 

[Awesome Stranger]

You can do this all day long, but you will eventually get cleaned.

 

[Simple]

Odds don't increase/decrease after each match, they reset. After each fight, odds are 50/50. They don't suddenly become 66/33. Sorry but you can't rewrite math.

If your math were right, then the other player would also have +11mil. This is impossible.

 

[pure_cheater]

Odds don't increase/decrease after each match, they reset. After each fight, odds are 50/50. They don't suddenly become 66/33. Sorry but you can't rewrite math.

If your math were right, then the other player would also have +11mil. This is impossible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Interesting and somewhat relevant.

Basically, if you have a 50/50 chance of winning something, that means you should win 1 out of every 2 games overall. So the fact that you've just lost one game increases your odds of winning the next one in theory. There is always the chance of getting fucked 10x in a row, but the chance of winning 10x in a row should be exactly the same as the chance of losing 10x in a row.

 

[Jinko]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

and you explained it quite poorly,

stake 1: 1M - lost
stake 2: 2M - lost
stake 3: 4M - lost
stake 4: 8M - win
profit: 1M
double your bet everytime you lose then reset your starting bet to 1M

this isn't guaranteed profit tho.

I've said it like a billion times on Sythe, but I lost 6 times in a row two times doing that with maxed stats.

 

[saiyangohanz]

I originally used this method but alas. I made 2.2B from 10m GP by increasing in increments. My gains outweighed my losses the entire time. It was followed by a gigantic loss streak, taking me to a whopping 0GP. I wouldn't test your luck

 

[Simple]

There is no mathematical formula to luck lol.

 

[Stewfid Noob]

How many people have actualy had success at the duel arena by doubling stakes after loses?

 

[Mint Oz]

Might work

 

[bryanvosper]

Lots of people do this, and it can be very profitable. However there are instances where you can go on like 6+ losing streaks so be careful.

 

[xFakiee]

This method wouldn't really work would it?