Runescape Maxed Boxing: Your opinion

[DropDaBass]

You Do not have a 50/50 chance of winning, it is all random. Figure you hit low 2 fights in a row.. as in your opponent having near a full hp bar, your next stake will most likely be a win, but if you go up against a person who also has had 2 bad fights, it will be a very close fight.. It all depends on the opponents loss streak

 

[liveinthecity]

I believe this strategy of gambling is called the 'Martingale Theory", and the concept is that you basically double your bet everytime you lose so that you eventually win back all the lost cash, plus a small profit.

This theory has had tons of holes poked in it before, unfortunately. Staking still requires a great deal of luck and so unless you have an absolutely MASSIVE cashpile (so that you eventually WILL win), this strategy may work for awhile but will eventually clean you. It IS possible that this strategy can work for you though, but it has been proven time and time again that with a streak of extremely bad luck, it is possible to lose 8-9 matches in a row and essentially get cleaned.

This thread is very interesting to me as I just maxed out my character and am very interested to finally try box staking. I have personally tried the Martingale Theory method before with things like dicing and had successful runs with it, but I've heard far too many horror stories about people losing their entire bank from a run of bad luck, so I think this time I will be trying something different.

You should try another strategy, like taking a percentage of your bank that you are willing to gamble with, and put everything else in your bank so that you are not tempted. Use this to gamble with, and every time you win take a portion of those winnings to put into your bank and keep the rest to continue to gamble with. You don't make profit as fast doing this, but as a long term strategy this is alot smarter and will prevent you from losing your bank. You can still win quite big doing this method, you just won't be losing big

Thanks for your reply! Pm me your username and tell me how it goes for you I can't stake for another week or so due to finals being so close.

 

[idrinkgas]

Just pid with rapier and cls or magebox with pid your odds will be about 60% to 40

 

[liveinthecity]

You Do not have a 50/50 chance of winning, it is all random. Figure you hit low 2 fights in a row.. as in your opponent having near a full hp bar, your next stake will most likely be a win, but if you go up against a person who also has had 2 bad fights, it will be a very close fight.. It all depends on the opponents loss streak

Each match is intependant. How would your past effect your future in this type of match? I've heard from a friend if you loose by over 50% LP then you have a better chance of winning, maybe its how the game mechanics work but do you have proof that that method works?

 

[liveinthecity]

Just pid with rapier and cls or magebox with pid your odds will be about 60% to 40

How do you know you have PID over your opponent?

 

[Pockets]

This is called martingaling and it does not work.

See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

This topic has been brought up 100+ times on these forums, really, don't do it. Do the math, your expected value is 0, on top of that you have to waste time staking.

If you want to make money staking, do mage boxes with PID or rapier stakes with PID

This x100000

The probability of losing 9 times in a row in an effort to gain 250k is 0.00195 (0.5^9)
That means you have roughly a 0.2% chance of going broke on each 250k gain. Which translates to 1 in 500 or so. That may seem like a very small number, but that is only 125m worth of gain.

No matter how good of an idea this seems to be, you will just end up broke and having wasted a lot of time.

 

[Emperor Nero]

You can use the reverse labouchre system, but it still isn't extremely ideal for betting.

 

[Pockets]

You can use the reverse labouchre system, but it still isn't extremely ideal for betting.

Pretty sure this is what Sparc Mac was trying when I staked him a few times.

 

[uselesspoop]

This method of staking has been brought up countless of times and the same classic reply is : no it will not work.

Since maxed boxing staking is 50/50 ( that is if you get the first hit 50% of the time ), the expected ROI % is 50% and the number will never change no matter what sort of 'strategy' you applied.

As you said, the chances of you getting cleaned is 0.02%. And 250k is also 0.02%. So in actual fact your net expected value will be 0gp, which means it will be the same as you staking all 64m in one go, or 1m 64 times, etc, etc..

 

[GodGenesis]

I would advice that if you lose like 3 times in a row, log out and come back 1 hour later. I would usually win the first one after that hour.

Not sure why but it did worked for me many times.

 

[Pockets]

This method of staking has been brought up countless of times and the same classic reply is : no it will not work.

Since maxed boxing staking is 50/50 ( that is if you get the first hit 50% of the time ), the expected ROI % is 50% and the number will never change no matter what sort of 'strategy' you applied.

As you said, the chances of you getting cleaned is 0.02%. And 250k is also 0.02%. So in actual fact your net expected value will be 0gp, which means it will be the same as you staking all 64m in one go, or 1m 64 times, etc, etc..

0.2%, seem nit-picky, but that's a huge difference.

The expected value if it's truly random will always be 0 for the various methods, but the distributions of possible outcomes will be differently shaped.

 

[liveinthecity]

0.2%, seem nit-picky, but that's a huge difference.

The expected value if it's truly random will always be 0 for the various methods, but the distributions of possible outcomes will be differently shaped.

so what do you suppose I do? Saying I have 150M starting cash what would be my best approach?

I've been doing some PID rapier staking, working great so far.

 

[Zerkerfist]

Does anybody have any information about where to find a very detailed guide that goes into depth about EVERYTHING that a nooby staker might want to know?

For example, what kinds of common scams are out there and how to counter them, details on how to "PID" stake like described above, etc etc.

 

[liveinthecity]

Does anybody have any information about where to find a very detailed guide that goes into depth about EVERYTHING that a nooby staker might want to know?

For example, what kinds of common scams are out there and how to counter them, details on how to "PID" stake like described above, etc etc.

I'm interested in this as well. Honesly with all this feedback I'm thinking of just buying 1B cash then staking until I get the 1.4B for the red

 

[liveinthecity]

This x100000

The probability of losing 9 times in a row in an effort to gain 250k is 0.00195 (0.5^9)
That means you have roughly a 0.2% chance of going broke on each 250k gain. Which translates to 1 in 500 or so. That may seem like a very small number, but that is only 125m worth of gain.

No matter how good of an idea this seems to be, you will just end up broke and having wasted a lot of time.

0.2% on each stake, starting at a 1m base means if I had 511M i could potentially stake 250 times (50% chance of reaching 9+ losses) to gain 250M to be safe.

 

[Pockets]

0.2% on each stake, starting at a 1m base means if I had 511M i could potentially stake 250 times (50% chance of reaching 9+ losses) to gain 250M to be safe.

You'd actually have a roughly 60% chance of not busting after 250 attempts. It still doesn't really make sense though, because it takes a ton of time and still has an expected value of 0.

 

[liveinthecity]

You'd actually have a roughly 60% chance of not busting after 250 attempts. It still doesn't really make sense though, because it takes a ton of time and still has an expected value of 0.

What do you mean when you say expected value of 0?

On a long enough timeline everyone gets cleaned. You just have to know when to walk away

 

[liveinthecity]

Alright, I have changed my gameplan up a bit.

Starting with 200M.

I stake as follows... assuming 5 loses in a row

1m
2m
4m
8m
16m

Chance of 5 loses in a row: 3.1% each box.

now instead of the original said method, I RESTART back at 1m

1m
2m
4m
8m
16m

chance of losing 10 times in a row: 0.1% each box.

Gold used if lost 10 times in a row: 62M

This means I can afford too loose a wooping 40+ times. This will NEVER happen. (9.09x10E-11 % each box).

What do you guys think? I think this method is good for slow and steady profit

 

[Zerkerfist]

I'm interested in this as well. Honesly with all this feedback I'm thinking of just buying 1B cash then staking until I get the 1.4B for the red

PM me if you find anything mate. And if you decided to buy some cash on go on a staking rampage, good luck!

 

[cownap]

I'm not a stat guy but I know that rather seeing it a .02 chance. You should see it as nine separate 50% chances.