Runescape Maxed Boxing: Your opinion

[liveinthecity]

Hi everyone,

Thanks for taking an interest in my thread. I am here because my last staking methods didn't work. I went from 500M to 1.4B in the course of a week. Only to get cleaned in the end.

Doing 10-20s and the occasional 50M snipe worked out for a while (Until the 1.5B mark then I raged hard after loosing a 20m, 40m,80m, 400m,600m and finally 310M to get cleaned.

Currently, I have somewhat recovered from nothing. I have a 150M cash stack. My staking plan is as follows:
(Please Keep in mind I am staking to make steady cash flow, not for high risk/high reward)

Base Stack: 250K
Total Stack: 150M

0.25M
0.50M
1.00M
2.00M
4.00M
8.00M
16.0M
32.0M
64.0M

Cash left: 22.25M

As you can see, this gives me 9 chances to win back and make the original 250k. I calculted the odds of this to be: 0.5^9 = 0.002%

This is where you guys come in! I need your staking experience, as I have only just begun my staking career. Here are the questions I would like answered:

Is 9 attempts to make back my cash enough?

Using that math that I did, is that an accurate way to calculate the chance of me getting cleaned?

At a 250k base stack, I calculated that I can roughly make 3-5M/HR do you find that to be accurate with your experiences?

Do personally have any advice for an intermediate staker like myself or anyone else who is reading this thread?

Thanks everyone for your contributions. I love staking and its the only thing that makes Runescape worth while.

 

[caped crusador]

there's definitely a greater chance then 0.02% to be cleaned, but you should be good for now unless you hit an unlucky streak.

 

[liveinthecity]

My goal is to get back to a red phat over 4 months. Do you think I'll be good staking 250ks as base?

 

[caped crusador]

well getting to a red phat while staking only 250k incraments will be a long process

 

[Cicak Mage]

I've lost over 20 stakes in a row on more than one occasion. Keep betting the same amount each time, its the simplest and best way.

 

[caped crusador]

I've lost over 20 stakes in a row on more than one occasion. Keep betting the same amount each time, its the simplest and best way.

no its not because maxed staking is a 50/50 chance essentially so he would have to actually get lucky and win a good chunk of his stakes in order to gain any profit

 

[Cicak Mage]

no its not because maxed staking is a 50/50 chance essentially so he would have to actually get lucky and win a good chunk of his stakes in order to gain any profit

I'm an experienced staker, I know the odds but the odds don't mean he will win one and lose one, the winning and losing doesn't follow a pattern, you get lucky and make bank or your unlucky and you get cleaned or lose a lot of money. The chances don't matter at all.

 

[liveinthecity]

no its not because maxed staking is a 50/50 chance essentially so he would have to actually get lucky and win a good chunk of his stakes in order to gain any profit

Yeah. Exactly. Now what do you think I can make /hr?

The way I worked it out:

Roughly 1 stake = 90 seconds

/Hr = 40 stakes

50/50 Chance = 50% of 40

Each stake = 250k profit.

20 x 250k= 5000k or 5M / Hr

Total= 280Hrs of boxing to get red phat

 

[Cicak Mage]

Yeah. Exactly. Now what do you think I can make /hr?

The way I worked it out:

Roughly 1 stake = 90 seconds

/Hr = 40 stakes

50/50 Chance = 50% of 40

Each stake = 250k profit.

20 x 250k= 5000k or 5M / Hr

Total= 280Hrs of boxing to get red phat

Staking doesn't work like that! Just because your the same stats doesn't mean you will win one then lose one or anything. You can't use calculations to calculate how many hours until you get a party hat, its impossible to figure out!

 

[Skyrim Fanboy]

Staking doesn't work like that! Just because your the same stats doesn't mean you will win one then lose one or anything. You can't use calculations to calculate how many hours until you get a party hat, its impossible to figure out!

Exactly, blame it on the random luck of the draw (hits, you can thank Jagex) and PID.

 

[liveinthecity]

Staking doesn't work like that! Just because your the same stats doesn't mean you will win one then lose one or anything. You can't use calculations to calculate how many hours until you get a party hat, its impossible to figure out!

Putting odds aside for a minute. Based on your opinon. Do you think I could make it to 1B+ just doing 250ks. In theory, this should be alot safer with low stakes. Correct?

 

[caped crusador]

Putting odds aside for a minute. Based on your opinon. Do you think I could make it to 1B+ just doing 250ks. In theory, this should be alot safer with low stakes. Correct?

yes i think its possible but you may end up getting cleaned on the way to it. Staking is just very unpredictable, u can win 10 in a row but also lose 10 in a row

 

[Cicak Mage]

Putting odds aside for a minute. Based on your opinon. Do you think I could make it to 1B+ just doing 250ks. In theory, this should be alot safer with low stakes. Correct?

It may be safer in the fact you may not get cleaned because of how low your staking snd yes its possible you can Make it to 1b but the chances are unbelievably low.

 

[Cicak Mage]

yes i think its possible but you may end up getting cleaned on the way to it. Staking is just very unpredictable, u can win 10 in a row but also lose 10 in a row

The way I look at it, the chances of getting cleaned are so low that by the time I even get close to loosing 9 times in a row I will have made the money to go to the next double. Making it 10 times I have to loose to get cleaned.. etc. Even 9+ losses would be pretty unlucky.

It may be safer in the fact you may not get cleaned because of how low your staking snd yes its possible you can Make it to 1b but the chances are unbelievably low.

Is it low because I must participate in 8000 dueling matches? Assuming I win 4000 (50%), thats 1B profit.

The way I look at it, the chances of getting cleaned are so low that by the time I even get close to loosing 9 times in a row I will have made the money to go to the next double. Making it 10 times I have to loose to get cleaned.. etc. Even 9+ losses would be pretty unlucky.

You couldn't make a worse statement mate. I'm not trying to be mean, but seriously? That statement is completely wrong. You can start with a bad losing streak, you mate win one lose 4, win 3 and lose 7 etc. As stated, its completely unpredictable.

You couldn't make a worse statement mate. I'm not trying to be mean, but seriously? That statement is completely wrong. You can start with a bad losing streak, you mate win one lose 4, win 3 and lose 7 etc. As stated, its completely unpredictable.

What do you mean? That senario is perfectly fine. If I win even 1 I make back all my losses from the previous matches + 250k. I can accompany the losses of 7 in a row, 4 wins is great. Sets me up +1m

 

[Cicak Mage]

What do you mean? That senario is perfectly fine. If I win even 1 I make back all my losses from the previous matches + 250k

Ok, put it like this.

You lose 250k
You lose 500k
You lose 1m
You lose 2m
You lose 4m
You lose 8m
You lose 16m
You lose 32m
You lose 64m
You lose 128m CLEANED

10 stakes to clean you, it happens to a lot of people, lots of people lose a lot of stakes on a row.
You also can't calculate how many hours because the average time of a stake isn't accurate. Sometimes the fight area is full, finding an opponent doesn't take exactly the same time each time.

 

[liveinthecity]

Ok, put it like this.

You lose 250k
You lose 500k
You lose 1m
You lose 2m
You lose 4m
You lose 8m
You lose 16m
You lose 32m
You lose 64m
You lose 128m CLEANED

10 stakes to clean you, it happens to a lot of people, lots of people lose a lot of stakes on a row.
You also can't calculate how many hours because the average time of a stake isn't accurate. Sometimes the fight area is full, finding an opponent doesn't take exactly the same time each time.

Alright, I understand where your going. I guess that's the risk I will have to take when I start building again. I personally have not lost 8+ times in over 1000 stakes.

 

[video]

This is called martingaling and it does not work.

See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

This topic has been brought up 100+ times on these forums, really, don't do it. Do the math, your expected value is 0, on top of that you have to waste time staking.

If you want to make money staking, do mage boxes with PID or rapier stakes with PID

 

[liveinthecity]

This is called martingaling and it does not work.

See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

This topic has been brought up 100+ times on these forums, really, don't do it. Do the math, your expected value is 0, on top of that you have to waste time staking.

If you want to make money staking, do mage boxes with PID or rapier stakes with PID

I remember seeing a guide on how to get PID over your opponent. Are you able to tell me how to use the PID strategy? I forget the way to see on the tradescreen who has PID

 

[Zerkerfist]

I believe this strategy of gambling is called the 'Martingale Theory", and the concept is that you basically double your bet everytime you lose so that you eventually win back all the lost cash, plus a small profit.

This theory has had tons of holes poked in it before, unfortunately. Staking still requires a great deal of luck and so unless you have an absolutely MASSIVE cashpile (so that you eventually WILL win), this strategy may work for awhile but will eventually clean you. It IS possible that this strategy can work for you though, but it has been proven time and time again that with a streak of extremely bad luck, it is possible to lose 8-9 matches in a row and essentially get cleaned.

This thread is very interesting to me as I just maxed out my character and am very interested to finally try box staking. I have personally tried the Martingale Theory method before with things like dicing and had successful runs with it, but I've heard far too many horror stories about people losing their entire bank from a run of bad luck, so I think this time I will be trying something different.

You should try another strategy, like taking a percentage of your bank that you are willing to gamble with, and put everything else in your bank so that you are not tempted. Use this to gamble with, and every time you win take a portion of those winnings to put into your bank and keep the rest to continue to gamble with. You don't make profit as fast doing this, but as a long term strategy this is alot smarter and will prevent you from losing your bank. You can still win quite big doing this method, you just won't be losing big

 

[|0|]

Betting systems don't work, your calculations are wrong.