odds stakers

[EmmzBrah]

I see it everywhere now..

How are the odds in your favoir staking on an acc with 96 att 95 str 95 def 99 hp vs maxed mains? I staked last night and cleaned one for over 150m

 

[rs_bugs]

I see it everywhere now..

How are the odds in your favoir staking on an acc with 96 att 95 str 95 def 99 hp vs maxed mains? I staked last night and cleaned one for over 150m

its all luck based lol the rng on runescape has no logic..... one day you be hitting crap the next day you be hitting like a tank

 

[Krillex]

Technically at 97-97-97 99 you are even in odds to win for whipping. So people who force an x, and do not bet too large of their bank will always come out on top.

I.e stake 100 times, it will be close to 50 wins -50 losses , but the 1.1x gives them a 10% profit from this

 

[EmmzBrah]

Eh i guess it explains how there were others there willing to do up to 2b bets lol...

 

[Life2dmax]

I see it everywhere now..

How are the odds in your favoir staking on an acc with 96 att 95 str 95 def 99 hp vs maxed mains? I staked last night and cleaned one for over 150m

Out of curiosity, how much of an x were you given? and how many stakes did you do/what was your record?

 

[Not Stable]

You basically got lucky, usually odd stakers end up always making profit.
Odd staking is basically pre eoc dicing | flowering, the odds you have on them barely matters, and in sesh's they end up making profit.
Forgot to mention you need a lot of money to start odd staking in max main area, due to the fact people who will stake you are the people who lose a lot of money and just look for to break even or profit, they usually stake 50 - 100m +

 

[hattez]

removed comment for the safety of the users and there accounts. fuck jagex

 

[iballHard]

I have been a pretty hardcore staker myself.Odds staking in the long run SHOULD make you profit, but the reality is even with odds on your side you can get cleaned...Considering this, staking with odds against you, its the highway to the green dragz rebuild.

 

[Whipped]

I can't stand odds stakers...they're so stingy and they know damn well they don't have less "odds" when staking completely maxed mains...it's all rng based...

 

[EmmzBrah]

Out of curiosity, how much of an x were you given? and how many stakes did you do/what was your record?

25m was getting me 18m odd when we did big ones. I cant remember to be honest

I believe I won 3 out of every 4 stakes if i averaged it out. She won first two, i won next 3, she won one, i won next 6

 

[kushl9ve]

I see it everywhere now..

How are the odds in your favoir staking on an acc with 96 att 95 str 95 def 99 hp vs maxed mains? I staked last night and cleaned one for over 150m

Opponent had slight advantages in every skill so it was probs 45/100 chance of winning for you. I'd suggest just getting them last few levels for max and then you can go staking without needing to think about combat odds.

 

[Bunny Hops]

You're at a partial disadvantage, but not nearly enough for me to say it's "harder" for you. I've lost to unmaxed stakers on a maxed account boxing in the past.

 

[Temple Harvie]

Yeah I mean it ultimatily comes down to luck, since the odds aren't that much a difference. Ur like max comes in at 97.

 

[Chris]

Technically at 97-97-97 99 you are even in odds to win for whipping. So people who force an x, and do not bet too large of their bank will always come out on top.

I.e stake 100 times, it will be close to 50 wins -50 losses , but the 1.1x gives them a 10% profit from this

Not entirely true. Yes 97 str is the same as 99 in whipping, but 97 atk/added aren't and you lose 4 accuracy which honestly is basically nothing (49.25-49.5%) of winning realistically. Also a 1.1x is not a 10% profit on 50/50 odds. It's actually 5%. Because say I stake 10m vs someone else's 11m and there's a 50% chance of me winning. After 100 stakes I'll theoretically win 50, 50 * 21m( 10m + 11m for pot size), which will leave me with 105m after 100 stakes, and 5% more then I started with.

 

[Life2dmax]

Not entirely true. Yes 97 str is the same as 99 in whipping, but 97 atk/added aren't and you lose 4 accuracy which honestly is basically nothing (49.25-49.5%) of winning realistically. Also a 1.1x is not a 10% profit on 50/50 odds. It's actually 5%. Because say I stake 10m vs someone else's 11m and there's a 50% chance of me winning. After 100 stakes I'll theoretically win 50, 50 * 21m( 10m + 11m for pot size), which will leave me with 105m after 100 stakes, and 5% more then I started with.

Is there a combat calc somewhere that will give you like chances of hitting and def info? Or how did u figure it out. All I know is about the strength max hit calc

 

[Chris]

Is there a combat calc somewhere that will give you like chances of hitting and def info? Or how did u figure it out. All I know is about the strength max hit calc

I've looked for hours upon hours and never found one, that's why I gave a range guesstimating it. I've thought about just recording a lot (10s of thousands of hits) with different stats etc, and trying to figure out a formula myself but I realized it's to hard + I probably don't have the knowledge yet to figure out the formula yet.

 

[NikeShoes]

I've looked for hours upon hours and never found one, that's why I gave a range guesstimating it. I've thought about just recording a lot (10s of thousands of hits) with different stats etc, and trying to figure out a formula myself but I realized it's to hard + I probably don't have the knowledge yet to figure out the formula yet.

I collected a lot of data maybe 1.5-2 years ago on rs3 for various combat setups. It's super tedious, but once you gather the data, you can just estimate the probability distribution and run a monte carlo simulation. I don't know what combat is like now, but back then a lot of things could be estimated with only slight bias using a uniform distribution. Since the data makes it obvious in what direction the bias is, you can just add in a slight adjustment factor. It was pretty easy to get the probability down to 1 decimal point which is more than enough since staking for small % EV is a waste of time due to how few stakes an hour you can do.

If you're interested, I bet you could wait around for an update to occur that forces the calculators used by the "smart" stakers to be significantly biased. If you can make an unbiased calculator, you could stake them while they think the odds are in their favor when in reality it's in your own.

But really, it's probably not worth the time. You'd probably make more expected money with the same variance by trying to advantage play at a casino in real life.

 

[Chris]

I collected a lot of data maybe 1.5-2 years ago on rs3 for various combat setups. It's super tedious, but once you gather the data, you can just estimate the probability distribution and run a monte carlo simulation. I don't know what combat is like now, but back then a lot of things could be estimated with only slight bias using a uniform distribution. Since the data makes it obvious in what direction the bias is, you can just add in a slight adjustment factor. It was pretty easy to get the probability down to 1 decimal point which is more than enough since staking for small % EV is a waste of time due to how few stakes an hour you can do.

If you're interested, I bet you could wait around for an update to occur that forces the calculators used by the "smart" stakers to be significantly biased. If you can make an unbiased calculator, you could stake them while they think the odds are in their favor when in reality it's in your own.

But really, it's probably not worth the time. You'd probably make more expected money with the same variance by trying to advantage play at a casino in real life.

I have already made a staking calculator before account for max hits, hp, and using a random accuracy formula that I know is incorrect I found online, and literally with the way I coded it, I would need to change 2 lines of code to input a new accuracy calculator. If you still have it, could I see the data you collected a few years ago, or was that for eoc?

 

[NikeShoes]

I have already made a staking calculator before account for max hits, hp, and using a random accuracy formula that I know is incorrect I found online, and literally with the way I coded it, I would need to change 2 lines of code to input a new accuracy calculator. If you still have it, could I see the data you collected a few years ago, or was that for eoc?

It's for EOC. Even if you were working towards a calculator for EOC, chances are the combat system has changed substantially since then.

If you have people you trust, you can always pay them to gather the data for you. That's what I would usually do back when I was still into this stuff.

 

[Chris]

It's for EOC. Even if you were working towards a calculator for EOC, chances are the combat system has changed substantially since then.

If you have people you trust, you can always pay them to gather the data for you. That's what I would usually do back when I was still into this stuff.

I suppose, I just can't see Jagex changing their accuracy formula *that* drastically anytime soon.