how do i figure out how much to bet?

[Rs Master of Gold]

I know gambling is a risk i just want to to try this but i need help coming up with how much to bet.

what I want to do is bet 1m each time but if i lose then i double but i need help trying to figure out how much to bet with the 10% host fee each time.




for example:

100k bets
100k +10% fee*
200k+10% fee
400k +10% fee
800k +10% fee
1.6m +10% fee
3.2m+10% fee
6.4m +10% fee
10.8m +10% fee
21.6m +10% fee


1m bets

1m +10% fee
2m +10% fee
4m +10% fee
8m +10% fee
16m +10% fee
32m +10% fee
64m +10% fee
128m +10% fee



Any help would be appreciated I dont want to bet to try to make back my1m +10% fee but then have it be lost in the host fees. also do you think I should do the 100k stakes or the 1M stakes I got 140M to risk.

 

[Nytrix]

At the end of the day - the higher the risk, the higher the reward. It's all based on luck so the bet size won't make much difference.

 

[4444RS]

Just so you know, the betting system you described is called the martingale system.

To those who are not good with math it appears to give you an advantage over the host/other player as you simply keep raising the amount you bet until you eventually win.

But in actual fact, it's flawed. You will lose your money quicker then if you were to bet 100k each time no matter what the previous outcome was.

In this example, I'm going to exclude the commission.
>bet 100k
>lose (total loss 100k)
>bet 200k (to regain your total 100k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 300k)
>bet 400k (to regain your total 300k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 700k)
>bet 800k (to regain your total 700k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 1500k)
>bet 1600k (to regain your total 1500k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 3100k)
>bet 3200k (to regain your total 3100k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 6300k)
>bet 6400k (to regain your total 6300k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 12.7m)
>bet 12.8m (to regain your total 12.7m loss and gain 100k)

What you can see here, is that every time you bet you are risking larger and larger amounts but the amount you stand to gain remains the same, and that's the flaw.

By the end, you are betting 12.8m to win 100k.

You may think that there is no chance of losing that many in a row but consider this:

you have a 50% chance of winning (if you are dueling and paying a commission) each time. Just like a coin flip. The chances of the above example actually happening is 1 in 128. That may seem like good odds, but remember - it's still only for 100k. To start with 100k and lose all the way to 6.3m is a 1 in 64 chance.

2x2x2x2x2x2x2=128 (12.7m loss)
2x2x2x2x2x2=64 (6.3m loss)


Take into consideration that you pay a commission on top of this and things get even worse. You can't beat the system. If you want to gamble, do it when JaGex introduces "safe gambling" this year.

 

[video]

Just so you know, the betting system you described is called the martingale system.

To those who are not good with math it appears to give you an advantage over the host/other player as you simply keep raising the amount you bet until you eventually win.

But in actual fact, it's flawed. You will lose your money quicker then if you were to bet 100k each time no matter what the previous outcome was.

In this example, I'm going to exclude the commission.
>bet 100k
>lose (total loss 100k)
>bet 200k (to regain your total 100k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 300k)
>bet 400k (to regain your total 300k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 700k)
>bet 800k (to regain your total 700k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 1500k)
>bet 1600k (to regain your total 1500k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 3100k)
>bet 3200k (to regain your total 3100k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 6300k)
>bet 6400k (to regain your total 6300k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 12.7m)
>bet 12.8m (to regain your total 12.7m loss and gain 100k)

What you can see here, is that every time you bet you are risking larger and larger amounts but the amount you stand to gain remains the same, and that's the flaw.

By the end, you are betting 12.8m to win 100k.

You may think that there is no chance of losing that many in a row but consider this:

you have a 50% chance of winning (if you are dueling and paying a commission) each time. Just like a coin flip. The chances of the above example actually happening is 1 in 128. That may seem like good odds, but remember - it's still only for 100k. To start with 100k and lose all the way to 6.3m is a 1 in 64 chance.

2x2x2x2x2x2x2=128 (12.7m loss)
2x2x2x2x2x2=64 (6.3m loss)


Take into consideration that you pay a commission on top of this and things get even worse. You can't beat the system. If you want to gamble, do it when JaGex introduces "safe gambling" this year.

This times a thousand. The more you bet, the more you will lose. Especially with host fees involved

 

[invocation]

Just so you know, the betting system you described is called the martingale system.

To those who are not good with math it appears to give you an advantage over the host/other player as you simply keep raising the amount you bet until you eventually win.

But in actual fact, it's flawed. You will lose your money quicker then if you were to bet 100k each time no matter what the previous outcome was.

In this example, I'm going to exclude the commission.
>bet 100k
>lose (total loss 100k)
>bet 200k (to regain your total 100k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 300k)
>bet 400k (to regain your total 300k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 700k)
>bet 800k (to regain your total 700k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 1500k)
>bet 1600k (to regain your total 1500k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 3100k)
>bet 3200k (to regain your total 3100k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 6300k)
>bet 6400k (to regain your total 6300k loss and gain 100k)
>lose (total loss 12.7m)
>bet 12.8m (to regain your total 12.7m loss and gain 100k)

What you can see here, is that every time you bet you are risking larger and larger amounts but the amount you stand to gain remains the same, and that's the flaw.

By the end, you are betting 12.8m to win 100k.

You may think that there is no chance of losing that many in a row but consider this:

you have a 50% chance of winning (if you are dueling and paying a commission) each time. Just like a coin flip. The chances of the above example actually happening is 1 in 128. That may seem like good odds, but remember - it's still only for 100k. To start with 100k and lose all the way to 6.3m is a 1 in 64 chance.

2x2x2x2x2x2x2=128 (12.7m loss)
2x2x2x2x2x2=64 (6.3m loss)


Take into consideration that you pay a commission on top of this and things get even worse. You can't beat the system. If you want to gamble, do it when JaGex introduces "safe gambling" this year.

I was just about to do a quick explanation of this betting system. I just take exactly what I intend to bed, bet it, and then leave either way. Takes a little self control but it'll save you trust me.

 

[XX_PLANKER_xx]

If you want to gamble, do it when JaGex introduces "safe gambling" this year.

Jagex actually announced they're adding legit gambling?! Would someone mind linking me to it? I can't seem to find it.

I don't know whether this is a good or bad thing; It's definitely overdue but at the same time I'll lose my main source of income.

 

[Cruellex]

The correct amount to bet is ZERO.

 

[Humpo]

Make 1M > Bet 1M > Win > Bet another 1M > Win > Bet 2M > Win > Bet 4M
-------------------> Lose > Start from begining

 

[I_DONT_BOT]

Smaller bets are better in the long run. Large bets are if you want to risk getting rich quick.

 

[JEP]

Just remember when to stop.. I brought 500m and started to stake lol got a cash stack and then lost it all lol

 

[Rs Master of Gold]

Thanks, but you guys still havent answered my question how do I figure out how to still profit with the 10% host fees.

 

[invocation]

Thanks, but you guys still havent answered my question how do I figure out how to still profit with the 10% host fees.

I think you completely missed the point of everyone's posts. You're better off betting 100k every time than doing your system.

 

[S]

Smaller bets are better in the long run. Large bets are if you want to risk getting rich quick.

That's incorrect. The Odds are the same. Whether you bet 100K or 50M, the variation in the amount won't play a part in the chances of winning or losing.

You can say smaller gradual bets correlate to a slower decline in loss of wealth, if we're talking about losing.

 

[S]

Thanks, but you guys still havent answered my question how do I figure out how to still profit with the 10% host fees.

That depends on how much profit you're after. Theoretically, if you win more than you lose, you will still profit, even after the host fees.

 

[Rs Master of Gold]

That's incorrect. The Odds are the same. Whether you bet 100K or 50M, the variation in the amount won't play a part in the chances of winning or losing.

You can say smaller gradual bets correlate to a slower decline in loss of wealth, if we're talking about losing.

He was saying if you bet big you will win more, but you would also lose more, bet small you win or lose small.



I'm going to work on my skiller with the 151M I'm not going to gamble.

 

[XX_PLANKER_xx]

Theoretically, if you win more than you lose, you will still profit, even after the host fees.

Yep, winning is always a great strategy for gambling. I do it daily.

OT: I think it would just be the martingale system +11%? Anything over the host fee would give you profit.