Runescape 2011 - The Great Deflation

[CrapInACup]

I don't understand your use of the term "liquid."

 

[adr58]

I agree with R2pleasant but I think the economy will eventually pick up.

 

[WeRnIE]

The people will be crazy for a few weeks and it will begin to raise, great post

 

[LmaoRsRules]

If you trade nothing for 50m gold and get reported, they will see that and know it was RWT. theres no reason anyone would give you 50m for free. As you said, a fake stake would probably be a safer option, of course with you risking something too and the seller intentionally losing.

as right as you are this has to be with the right buyer as for example.
buyer of gold is a
seller of gold is b
buyer gives e.g $10 to seller.
they both stake 3m
seller ends up not losing and wins.
seller ends up $10 plus 3m up.

however if they were to scam normally.
they would only be $10 up
if you get where i come from

 

[Plznate]

as right as you are this has to be with the right buyer as for example.
buyer of gold is a
seller of gold is b
buyer gives e.g $10 to seller.
they both stake 3m
seller ends up not losing and wins.
seller ends up $10 plus 3m up.

however if they were to scam normally.
they would only be $10 up
if you get where i come from

Thats why you only buy from trusted sellers...

 

[AfterLyfe]

Thanks for posting this, it was good to know

 

[sheymyster]

Yea man, I mean the update won't change scamming at all. You can't accidently win a duel, if you try and kill the other person while your SELLING them gold, its your own doing and your a scammer. In today's gold selling/buying business, someone could just as easily take your money and not xfer the gold you bought. I actually like the new system much bettter because it does not require access to the buyers account by the seller. I believe this aspect of free trade will bring out all the shy buyers because there is no risk of losing your account or your bank by allowing external access to your account. Hopefully this factor will combat the other negative effects of FT and old wilde on the IRL price of gold.

 

[ImPrettyCool]

It's very hard to speculate on what prices will eventually settle at. $3.00/M seems insanely high right now; but if we look back only 7-8 months ago it was a regular price for many sellers. The market will sort these values out over time, right now all I can estimate is what direction they will go.

So you will still be selling gold full time?

 

[Celestina]

When a pker dies, does his/her loss = less than/more than the drop received on average? I would say more.

If the old wildy comes back, and I am right, less wealth will be lost, therefore more value and coins will remain, therefore the value of coins will decrease, meaning that items will require more coins which habe a lower value to purchase.. leading to inflation.. not deflation.

 

So you will still be selling gold full time?

I will be selling gold no matter what happens. I was here back in the original Free Trade system, and was the #1 seller on Sythe back then also. I believe this should only help business.

When a pker dies, does his/her loss = less than/more than the drop received on average? I would say more.

If the old wildy comes back, and I am right, less wealth will be lost, therefore more value and coins will remain, therefore the value of coins will decrease, meaning that items will require more coins which habe a lower value to purchase.. leading to inflation.. not deflation.

Actually, you have this incorrect in many ways. Yes, when people die in the Wild, the killer usually does not receive 100% of the drop value. However, one major thing is that the drops in the Wild atm are often statues, etc., which are then sold at NPC's for GP. So, this actually CREATES gold. In old PK, people get the items that their victim was wearing, not a gold reward. So this keeps more items in play, and creates less gold. Furthers delfation.

However, the PK system does not have a massive impact as a whole. To simply analyze this area of Runescape and make a judgement on the entire economy is very narrow-minded. The majority of Runescape players do not spend their time PKing.

 

[Celestina]

Oh. Was just thinking... I don't PK !

But.... I hear a lot of people saying they killed someone that had bandos or something and they only received a few hundred K.

 

[william452]

Great post R2. Would I be better off selling all my bandos and high-leveled stuff, or keeping it? Let me know, thanks.

 

[rememberthedays]

Theory:

As prices continue to lower toward free trade, all items are becoming more affordable. When free trade hits, many thousands of accounts with money in them will be transfered to mains and what will they do with this new found money? purchase newly discounted high level items!!!

wow.. strange eh?

So heres your chance to make BILLIONS of GP if you wanna bet on my assumption. If this were to come true, supplies of rare equipment will be bought out and the prices are going to sky rocket into an eventually bubble crash.

But in the meantime, you can dump your previously bought equipment for 3x what you bought them at...

Is it worth the risk?

 

[rememberthedays]

I also predict that the missing toolbar button thing on the bottom of the screen (right of magic, left of friend) will be a 'store' function, or grand exchange type tool. most likely the ability to set up your own shop.

 

[sheymyster]

Now that would be sick! now that the GE will pretty much be an auction house, I was hoping that Jagex would realize this adaption and implement more than 6 slots for members. I've played a few other MMO's and most of the time you could have at least 10 and in some cases like 40 or 50 items buying or selling in the auction house or similar entity.

 

[dsj]

I am still holding that the price will see a small drop for the first few weeks to months. Reasons why? Because you will have more competitors in the gold selling market because of the new ease of transfer and they will wanting to make money and will undercut the large sellers to make their quick and dirty money, but after this small drop I believe you will see a rise in prices.

Agree with this. Very well written analysis though R2.

 

[MegaByte]

Very interesting, thanks.

So by that analogy, rare prices will be heading straight down, correct? I mean if gold rises, let's say to $2 per mill (example) then it stands to reason that phats cant be worth over a bill (making hats worth thousands of $$), like many expect, right? It can't go both ways, either rares keep their rare value and gold plummets or gold rises and rares crash. But then when I think about it a Blue Partyhat (worth ~$500 atm) can't be worth like 250m (if prices were $2) because then every man and his dog could afford one, thus defeating the whole rare purpose. Unless perhaps there's a lot less actual GP in game than people think?

Hurts my head just trying to work it out!

Something else to think about. The way the current trading system is, merchanting pretty much = price manipulation, so thousands of people pump their GOLD into items because they know it's just like currency and they can get it back later. However with free trade, they cant get it back, no longer will someone buy a million poison ivy berries (example) off of you, so what happens to that gold that got invested? Gone. Large amounts of gold invested, now essentially worthless, nice gold sink!

This will be an interesting time for the runescape economy, can't wait

 

[JohnK]

Interesting insight. I think the discontinued item prices will be defined by stakers eventually.

 

[Shin]

Great post Will. Thanks for this.

The way I see it, people are currently stocking up for the reintroduction of free trade. When it is first reimplemented, the market will be very competitive, initially making prices lower. However, as these people lose gold to others by way of staking, failed merches, or another way, they may come back to purchase more as the market attempts to stabilize. As this continues to occur, the price of gold will most likely rise up again. I'm not sure how high the prices may get, but there's going to be a lot of stock lingering for quite a while.

However, having a reputation such as R2Pleasent has, or perhaps even Plznate and others may help them out by pricing mills at a higher price than others and still get paid. This is because people will still wish to have some security, trading with someone who's trusted, perhaps without use of an Official Middleman. People may not have purchased gold previously with the requirements asked of them (user/pass/pin), but with free trade, I'm certain those individuals would still wish to have some sort of security.

Anxiety can certainly be a killer. Hope to see this all unfold soon enough.

 

[shane+]

Interesting post..thanks.

I have ~11k monks in my bank i planned on holding on it. Guess i better sell before they drop anymore, they've already dropped 180 gp since i bought them. Thanks!