Reminder: BTC Block Halving in approximately 2 months

Upon further research, the DAO liquidation is actually a 30% premium over the ICO price. Once this fiasco is sorted out, tokens will be able to be cashed out at 70 DAO -> 1 ETH so there may be some (albeit extremely risky) arbitrage opportunity if you can purchase DAO at the proper ratio. The DAO has dropped approximiately 50% from its ICO level, while ETH may be close to reaching its bottom. There is no guarantee that the tokens will be redeemable in the near future though, since there is much debate going on as to the direction of a solution to this problem. Another alert I got from a friend of mine is that the DAO exploit is being peddled on the dark web, which may further spread FUD.

 

What do you see the pre-halving ceiling as? I have around $850 in BTC right now that I'm considering selling in a day or so because of how much it's already risen.

 

There will be a significant inflow of buy orders from folks hedging against the DOAETHpocalypse which surprisingly had a ripple effect on quite a few other high value alts such as LISK (which is a java DAPP platform for Bitcoin, similar in function to Ethereum's turing smart contracts) That's just part of the technical side. The other side is various macro geopolitical events that are coming up this year. Possibility of negative interest rates by the Fed, bond bubble burst, Brexit, Greece, capital outflow from China, to name a few.

I don't doubt we'll be seeing BTC push $800+ relatively soon.

 

What does btc halving mean? Will it drop the price or increase it?

 

Halving means that for each block solved on the blockchain through mining, it's rewarded 12.5 BTC instead of 25 BTC. Because it is highly energy intensive to run ASIC mining operations, they need to constantly sell their BTC in order to recoup cost of electricity and maintenance costs. The theory behind the price rise is that if BTC's price is too low, miners will no longer be able to generate a profit to continue securing the network, leading to a vulnerable blockchain due to a rapid loss of hash rate.

That, coupled with the fact that the supply will become even more limited has fueled price speculation to current prices. Another interesting point to note is that the last BTC halving was November 28th, 2012 (at around $12 to $14 per BTC). A few short months afterwards (after the Cyprus bankruptcy fiasco), BTC reached ATHs of $250+.

 

Thinking of investing a few grand tonight, everyone saying it's going to hit $1200.

 

No need for panic sells, the flash crash was due to Bitfinex technical issues on both the market and futures side. Prices will stabilise, most other alts have held steady / gained amidst the chaos, so there are plenty of hedging options in the meantime.

 

Hah, I did =3

 

That's why BTC went from $12 - $14 to $260+ in less than 6 months after the first halving?

I'll say it again, the crash was due to the excessive amount of leveraged trades on Bitfinex that got affected by their outage.

 

Brexit confirmed. BTC rebounds $125 in one day. British Sterling drops $0.15 against the dollar, the largest single drop in exchange rate since the pound became a free floating currency. Shockwaves through global financial markets (Japan, Hong Kong, London). Rush into safe havens, including gold, silver, and BTC.

 

Things to look out for:
- Rumors of FREXIT are floating. A few months back, due to the traction gained with the Brexit concept (which has now come to fruition), 53% of voters wanted to have a similar referendum as well. Some other countries have engaged in discussions as well. Nothing is certain in regards to the stability or the future of the EU anymore.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...demand-Frexit-EU-referendum-Germany-UK-Brexit

https://www.rt.com/viral/348039-brexit-eu-referendum-domino/

- Greece is a highly volatile country in regards to politics, fiscal policy, and economic (in)stability. Austerity measures are devastating its citizens and there is no solution that has been put forth, only last minute "relief funds" that don't at all help reduce their true deficits, only pay off their interest while their principal continues to grow in contrast to their GDP.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-3350828

 

Reminder. 2 weeks remain until the next halving. Closing in on the moment of truth.

Current price: $692

 

6 month update post halving.

Current price: $1,027 USD