A look at my stock predictions from 2011

http://www.sythe.org/assets-investment/1287907-anet390s-stock-watch.html

The two most important to look at are DPS and GS.

I started watching DPS @ 36.53/share and it is currently trading for around 78.59

I started watching GS @ 95.86/share and it is currently trading for around 189.66

I started watching JSDA @ .45/share and it is currently about .44/share

I started watching SMBL but since then it has bought out, so I won't include their stock as it isn't traded under the same name anymore.

 

I'd be interested, main reason I don't go into stocks big time is because yes there are plenty of tips but Im looking for actual companies to invest in, not general pointers.

 

I am generally a long term investor. Day trading is a lot harder and isn't a true investment since you are just selling it minutes or hours later.

The money is yours, I just provide advice and recommend companies to invest in. You can choose the amount of money you want to invest and the amount of shares. We can work something out if you are really interested.

 

[Threads like this make me want an investments subforum...]

Did you actually invest in them, or did you just watch them? If you want to talk about this sort of stuff, hmu on Skype. Curious to know what your rationale is in predicting future price changes

 

I invested in a decent amount of shares every once in a while if I had some extra money. I'm not really comfortable disclosing how much I invested and made, but I can say I more than doubled the money I invested in DPS and GS. (Too bad I didn't have millions to invest)

Yeah, I'll hit you up on skype when I get home

EDIT: By the way, today I sold all my current stocks for a nice profit. My portfolio is now empty and ready to be filled again with more money-making stocks. (I hope )

 

Eh a DCF analysis from a credible source (preferably making it yourself...) is the best way to invest if you know what you're doing. A number of analysts at banks can't even make them from scratch or understand the true assumptions. I've done very well, and GS was my bank stock as well actually.

 

Why did you think those stocks would rise. I'm about to invest $1500 when the money clears.

 

I have an analysis of previous prices after specific things are released throughout the company. Sometimes you can use a formation that I am not really going to give out, but those are the really cheap stocks that you throw a bit of money into.

I have money of my own that I invest. I'm interested in talking with you about this.

 

I'd be very careful with that. An investment banker(or trader) doesn't look at a stock's past performance in order to calculate the intrinsic value today. The past doesn't matter - it's the future cash flows. Moreover momentum trading with press releases, well, there's a lot of accounting noise that can be thrown into quarterly earnings reports. Free cash flow is what matters, and the markets react irrationally to metrics like EPS.

It's great that you're experimenting (maybe I'll run into you working in NYC ) but be careful!

 

I actually disagree that the past doesn't matter. I think too much is looked at what the the stock SHOULD or what people THINK a stock should do after a press release or article or something similar, rather than evaluating what people in the past were willing to pay when something similar happened. I am also very interested in predicting the habits of rich/powerful day traders by seeing/predicting what they have done in the past. Understanding the nature of a stock and what makes it rise and fall in comparison with the nature of another stock is a very important piece of information.

I definitely think there is money to be made by using quarterly earning reports and popular press releases, but I think without the historical proof to back up your decision making process rather than just "good earnings report = stock rise", its just as good as a shot in the dark to me.

I probably won't end up in NYC career-wise sadly, even though I love the city. While I have a love for investing and economics, I think soon I'll realize it'll be something I do on the side of my actual career/studies. If I am in NYC visiting though, I don't think it would hurt to have a cup of coffee or lunch and discuss our thoughts.

edit: spelling errors

 

Day trader reporting in.

Heavy in short term options mostly in AAPL. Been expanding to GOOG and PCLN in the last year, made a bit over 6 figures last year.

 

To make big money trading expensive stocks like that, you must have a lot of capital to work with. Are you with a firm or something?

 

Nope. Just me and my father. My father has been day trading for 15+ years. He made his first million during the tech bubble and luckily got out just in time. Also, when AAPL topped out at ~$705 (cant remember exact number) my father made about $200,000 that day alone.

I don't trade large amounts of options, currently have less than ~50 options total mostly weekly. I've been busy with my full-time job so i unfortunately haven't been able to focus much on trading. I considered once or twice attempting to make day trading my full time job but the income just isn't steady enough.

My father on the other hand has quite a few spread out between 20-30 companies, he's been looking lately at a few who have FDA approvals pending specifically weight loss related companies like VVUS and ARNA, he's banking on them getting bought out soon.

As for capital, paying taxes hurt. That's all i have to say about that lol.

edit: Btw, me and my dad live in NYC, He lives in Tribeca.

 

That is awesome. You're dad is a G. I want to start investing in innovation and the future but I don't really know what I'd be doing. I try to rely on a handful of stocks that I can usually predict at least more times than not, that a specific change one day, will reflect another change the next.

 

Interesting thread, I've been looking heavily into investing recently, however working in the legal field I see to many horror stories of individuals losing a lot of money on the stock market.

are people using vanguard?

 

Nah. If you're talking about online brokerages, there are plenty of reviews out there - see this one, for example: http://online-stock-trading-review.toptenreviews.com/vanguard-review.html.

All of them are different. Some offer more tools, some offer lower fees, etc. I used to use TDA but then switched to TradeKing because of the fees. Plus it's not like many of the tools are all that useful, though TDA's thinkorswim platform was pretty cool.

 

What do you consider when looking at a new stock? Just curious as my Grandpa was a broker for over 25 years and has a ton of experience. I also invested ~$8,000 into a few different stocks. I'm going to invest another $5-10k shortly too, so just wanna hear a different opinion. For me, I look a lot at p/e, market cap, if insiders are buying in, and how the company has done in the past. I generally consider a p/e of 9-13 to be a good p/e, a market cap of 500m-5b solid, and I love it when a company did really well a few years back but maybe a few things went wrong and they could be on a rebound.

 

Great I'll check those reviews out, I'll probably favour low fees over tools (unless the tools blow me away)

 

The wolf of wall street incoming lol
Hope you make bank

 

GP matched the S&P 500 while the other one has only beaten it over the last few months.