Mid-term stock advice from Kozlik

as requested by a few people I have decided to share some of the stocks on my radar currently.

I know one of the moderators requested proof that this short term and mid term buying and selling is better than a long term investment.

So here it goes, currently my #1 pick is going to be (LRN) It's K12 Inc, an education technology company.

For the last three years this stock has had poor Q3 reports causing people to sell stock and plummet the price usually the change occurres within one trading day.

From October to December this stock drops, and drops hard. In most trading years it drops almost $4 a stock and this year it seems to be following the same exact routine to the T.

What I would suggest is to buy the stock during December and early January. And after that Q4 reports will be released and just like the drop in October it will jump once again. (Between 15-25th of January)

Stock will reach its peak around the month of May and that's when I'm selling. Should be looking at 25-35% growth on your investment

 

Too volatile??? I'm sorry but with all do respect I've made that percent growth on this exact stock two years in a row. I know there are no guarantees in the stock market but if you know how to analyze the history of not only the stocks but the companies dividends and returns, along with the volume history, along with their quarterly reports this thing is money. And it's not the only one like it. Call it what you wish but I will be putting my own money on it

 

why is history representative of the future for this (or any, really) stock? if a company historically dropped 25% at Q4 earnings time, don't you think they'd do everything in their power to NOT have stock dips at Q4 earnings time? people's compensation is directly tied to stock performance in many cases

and the point about volatility is a fair one. just because you've made money off of something in the past doesn't mean it's a good investment.

also, to be clear, is your position going long or shorting LRN?

 

I understand all the concerns, but you have to keep in mind that this stock is education related. School funding is natorious for drying up on the winter months. Which is one of the driving factors in the poor Q4 performance. But new year means new money. It's a lot to think about.

Also clarification #2 this is not long term***** buy late Dec 16 or early Jan 17 ------ Sell by July 17 if not earlier

 

seasonal, cyclical effects like this are not nearly as prominent anymore. but hey, we'll see if you're right

 

hate to say i told you so...... but the stock actually ended up having the best returns to date if you bought when i made the post 10.60-17.58 yesterday....... just a little update

so that was 60.2% growth on 15,000 which made for a ~9,000 usd

 

damn, buying and selling at precise peaks and troughs. nice dude!

 

Damn nice advice shame I missed this, if you have anymore with solid rationale please let me know I still have some money to invest

 

I'll be dipped,

Update : 19.39

 

tell me what to chuck at

 

Very interested in your portfolio if you have time to talk about future positions! I've just became a trader myself this past 6 months and my portfolio is up around 32%.