2016 second dot com bubble about to burst?

Anyone else noticing that the tech industry has reached saturation in virtually every aspect and now the only growth seems to be in startups giving away products or services below cost? (Operating at a loss)

This happened right before the dot com bubble burst.

In addition an advertising subprime crisis seems to be in the works. (google for details)

This also happened right before the dot com bubble.

The bursting of a second dot com bubble will leave a lot of developers out of work.

I imagine those developers will retool and go into automation industries. Robotics industry will probably be the next big thing.

Thoughts?

 

[ilovegold69]

I warned my friends at the time (2-3 years ago) who started up CS majors about the possibility of this. They all told me i was retarded and that there would never be too little work. I'm very surprised at how many people don't have inhibitions about taking up careers in a field where everyone and their mother is trying to work.

 

The Baltic dry index was at all time lows earlier this year, indicating that the world has stopped making physical goods and is focused on virtual goods. We have a glut in the virtual goods market.

 

[SuF]

I've thought so for awhile now, especially after Facebook bought that texting app for a ridiculous 18 billion or whatever. But as of yet I've been wrong and the market hasn't dropped out. I have no idea why people think companies that make no money, like Twitter, are worth so much.

 

Twitter stock collapsed over night. First of many. If you're daring you can probably make some money shorting Microsoft apple and alphabet. Because they are next imho

 

[jackthehackm8]

Twitter stock collapsed over night. First of many. If you're daring you can probably make some money shorting Microsoft apple and alphabet. Because they are next imho

holy shit $25 to $20, 20% drop in 1 day.

Also im pretty sure you'll make money with apple, when I was doing the trading stocks CDT event, I bought all of mine at around $98, and all of a sudden it stabilized to about $108, so imo its a good risk. $113.89 right now, still rising. Apple always rises. Rose 2 dollars from oct 4, so the crashes are making people panic sell huh

 

holy shit $25 to $20, 20% drop in 1 day.

Also im pretty sure you'll make money with apple, when I was doing the trading stocks CDT event, I bought all of mine at around $98, and all of a sudden it stabilized to about $108, so imo its a good risk. $113.89 right now, still rising. Apple always rises. Rose 2 dollars from oct 4, so the crashes are making people panic sell huh

Apple is very overvalued IMHO. Profit fell 30% in the last quarter and will fall more this quarter. If you're in it get out now

 

[harry1111]

Apple is very overvalued IMHO. Profit fell 30% in the last quarter and will fall more this quarter. If you're in it get out now

Agreed, I think Alphabet will be okay though.

 

Agreed, I think Alphabet will be okay though.

I really don't think they will be. Advertising subprime is going to wreck them

 

[harry1111]

I really don't think they will be. Advertising subprime is going to wreck them

Honestly I wasn't aware of this, is it directly through google or targetted adds? As much as I hate doing so, I'll always admit mistakes. Based on what you've mentioned I'm wrong.

As there reputaton is still fragile following the privacy saga I'm perplexed as to why a company like this would risk damaging there reputation when all there current and future products have a large degree of trust involved from a user perspective.

Add in the none bias ruling on apple's EU tax and I have to agree with your original point.

 

Honestly I wasn't aware of this, is it directly through google or targetted adds? As much as I hate doing so, I'll always admit mistakes. Based on what you've mentioned I'm wrong.

As there reputaton is still fragile following the privacy saga I'm perplexed as to why a company like this would risk damaging there reputation when all there current and future products have a large degree of trust involved from a user perspective.

Add in the none bias ruling on apple's EU tax and I have to agree with your original point.

With market trends you have to ask yourself what the behaviour of yourself and the people around you actually is. Because you only need a small random sample to correctly model the rest of the population.

So ask yourself: Do you click google ads? Do you have an adblocker? Does anyone you know click google ads?

When was the last time you bought something as a result of clicking their ads?

In my case: I don't know anyone who clicks their ads, most people I know have adblockers. Most people I know completely ignore google ads.

Further when I try to advertise my own sites through adwords I don't get any conversions. The direct evidence before you speaks to their fundamentals more than any chart or graph can. I.e. their advertising is grossly over valued relative to the real product being provided.

 

I don't know that this will happen in the next five years, but eventually? Absolutely. When it does it'll be atrocious. Fucking everyone is making apps these days. Everyone has the next best idea, and the startup investment in terms of time, talent, and capital is disgustingly low. Anyone with half a brain and a completed Coursera course on development under their belt can make an app.

I don't think educated developers (Computer Scientists) will be in trouble though. Depending on what you retain from your education, you will still have work as an analyst. Always. As big companies grow, they require more people to manage their data. Because that's the boring work though, not surprisingly a lot of the young talent coming out of comp sci are hitting up the start-up world and dipping their toes in design. That's where the problem is. If what @Sythe says is true, then the "uneducated" developers will be at a colossal loss.

 

[Shin]

Are you trying to say we're about to have SytheDrones in a non-specific way?

 

I don't know that this will happen in the next five years, but eventually? Absolutely. When it does it'll be atrocious. Fucking everyone is making apps these days. Everyone has the next best idea, and the startup investment in terms of time, talent, and capital is disgustingly low. Anyone with half a brain and a completed Coursera course on development under their belt can make an app.

I don't think educated developers (Computer Scientists) will be in trouble though. Depending on what you retain from your education, you will still have work as an analyst. Always. As big companies grow, they require more people to manage their data. Because that's the boring work though, not surprisingly a lot of the young talent coming out of comp sci are hitting up the start-up world and dipping their toes in design. That's where the problem is. If what @Sythe says is true, then the "uneducated" developers will be at a colossal loss.

What you're talking about is the subprime of developers.

Crap developers are being thrown in under the same banner as good developers and paid good developer wages. It can't last. The good developers (computer scientists) will win when the bubble pops.

But honestly I think the bubble is popping this month. Stay tuned cowboys

 

nice one rich i got a few thousand dollar i want to invest in stocks you suggest me

 

nice one rich i got a few thousand dollar i want to invest in stocks you suggest me

Keep it in US dollars lol.

 

lol too late for that now buddy rich, got bout a few grands in my GBP and needless to say i have been devalued like a little kipper

 

What you're talking about is the subprime of developers.

Crap developers are being thrown in under the same banner as good developers and paid good developer wages. It can't last. The good developers (computer scientists) will win when the bubble pops.

But honestly I think the bubble is popping this month. Stay tuned cowboys

u gonna short anything my boy

 

u gonna short anything my boy

Not yet

Go long USD for a safe bet

If you start seeing price action on a big tech stock outside bull channel it might be time to move on shorting. Q3 results are likely to be quite bad for a lot of them. Out at the end of the month

 

Keep in mind that companies like uber, lyft, airbnb are also tech bubble companies. If they do IPO in this market their insane bubble valuations may be met with stark reality on day one. Those would be potentially good shorts.