Your investments

ytd +8.1% here, got hammered on allergan/alexion/unp but been doing fine elsewhere. am thinking about shaking up half of my portfolio this week. thoughts on where i might want to reallocate things to? my current lineup is http://puu.sh/kW2aS.png

 

If LUV gets a lil cheaper I think it's a solid long-term. I also think NAT is a pretty good investment as they do well with larger production and shipment of oil. I really like KMI long-term as they are mainly contracting and don't hurt as much on oil prices, but investors disagree with me after low earnings per share. (EPS doesn't reflect their large revenue and increase of dividends to .51, showing there is more free flowing cash and ability to fund well in any market.) I really think they strive in the future now that the market has stabilized and it is discounted now. I also think TWTR and APPL have major upside in the last few months and following year (2016). Volatility in general affected resources like gold and silver. But I've always liked silver more than gold as it doesn't crash as hard when resources and commodities get hit and is more stable and less expensive.

 

dont make me pick between my beloved jblu and luv

NAT is a somewhat interesting mention because i was considering it, and some similar shipping stocks, about 10 months ago. so maybe something to look into again this year

KMI isn't something i want to touch with a ten foot pole. in terms of oil/ng stocks i'm fairly happy with EOG and would probably keep it if i deceide to keep investments in that sector over the next 6-12 months

TWTR isn't something i want to touch with a ten foot pole. i think their share price should be going down because they're never going to make money. AAPL i'll hold for now

EXPE was one of my best picks in the 2013-2014 timeframe, and i sold my position in december of last year. considering picking it up again even though it's more expensive now than it was then.

 

You really don't have to pick BETWEEN them. In general airlines are a good investment because there is always demand. Airlines get revenue on a regional basis and tend to have strategical advantages that differ from competitive advantages. Most airlines have followed suit with each other, especially because the price of crude oil affects airlines to a certain degree..

I would have applauded you for investing in NAT 10 months ago.

Completely understand your opinions on TWTR and KMI, especially seeing as many people tend to agree with that non-profit opinion about Twitter. I just think the structure and potential is there and the user base is still proportionally large. And for KMI, they have a lot of locked in revenue and a lot of upside potential seeing as oil production is growing.

Not sure how interested in pharma you are but SNY and MRK are my two personal favorites in that sector.

I really like some retails and REALLY hate others, I like the HD stock you have. I think BBBY is pretty cheap and undervalued as far as retailers go.

 

I'd be a bit careful here brotha

 

Thoughts on rental income properties? Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't they relatively safe investments long term given they're in good locations? it builds equity and land appreciation is icing on the cake (but something not to be relied on). The only downside to investing in rental properties is the high entry costs.

 

I think NAT is very cheap at the moment. Anyone see the huge plunge JetBlue took this morning? It really changed at the close as it rallied. I think it's very cheap, especially since all airlines and most transportation has been doing well. LUV took a tiny dip, but not enough for me to put some more into it. TWTR is going to crash tomorrow. Their numbers were.. holy shit... Thank god I own 0 shares of that one. I threw about $2k more into KMI, it's insanely cheap.

My dad bought a ton of AA today. I'd heard of them but never knew what they did. Not really seeing exactly what he sees cause metals got hit this yr.

 

if this was true, everyone with enough money to overcome the high cost of entry would own all the valuable properties already

i personally think your roi is gonna be higher sticking to normal securities. also less hassle than having to deal with renters every month. also have to worry about crime, natural disasters, sudden changes in housing prices, etc. that can seriously affect your investment

 

If you're in it for the long term, you shouldn't need to worry too much about real estate especially when you are in a buzzing metropolitan area. The "returns" from rental properties are great because mortgage is paid (and equity is built) from the rental income.

Also, often times, you find good tenants and a few bad tenants if you do proper background checks like credit checks, previous landlords, employer, etc. In other words, you can see it as extra income that is forced savings. The work it takes to evaluate and analyze stocks, you can spend that time on managing your properties. Sure, it might be a little harder but it's a lot more worth it. The only problem here would be to not put all your eggs in one basket so you should invest elsewhere as well. I've known of a lot of people who have held onto real estate and have become wealthy due to property valuation rising over the past few decades. Most the issues you raised with real estate has to do with location and as you know, real estate is all location, location and location.

 

Today I decided I'm risky when I'm hungry and liquidated my portfolio and completely bought into PLUG. $11k worth of stock at avg price of 2.405.

This is a STUPID RISKY investment because of the sheer price, volume, and market cap of the stock

PLUG is the only stock I spend hours on end analyzing worthless information on. It's sadly become a bit of an obsession. All factors pointed towards a high grossing Q2, and I made about +17% on a smaller investment. The past month (especially with a stronger market), I've seen these same factors but way stronger and I just couldn't resist. Earnings next next Monday (Nov.9), wanted to buy a week ahead because I'm almost positive it'll trade high pre-report which allows me to get out if I suspect anything loopy while still making more than commission. (via stop-limit)

LET MY GREED BE THE DOWNFALL.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

 

Yeah they'll probably tax it.

 

Yeah that's true. Location, location, location. I have a property right now that I am currently renting out in downtown area and I already gained $30k in the last few years just from owning it as the market has increased. On top of that, the mortgage is paid by the renter. Usually 1 bedroom condos are in demand in downtown so its relatively safe investment. I was able to find a renter within a week.

 

more importantly, they're probably really shit investments

how much did you pay for the property though? 30k over a few years sounds nice, but if you've put 100k into the property you could have done better elsewhere

 

Mind sharing where for example? Even if you put 100k into the property, your equity is growing by at least 25k annually from rental income (duplex) and this is not even taking into account land appreciation. I'd be impressed if you are able to grow your investments 15%-20% almost passively while safely in the stock market. The only downside to real estate is it's not liquid asset but that's why location is important and if you're in a metropolitan area, you don't have to worry too much if you are in it for the long term.

 

PLUG up 9.54%. That puts me over 10% on a little over half my positions in it. Nothing too exciting happened for PLUG today specifically, but Honda did showcase the new fuel cell car powered by PLUG power on Saturday. PLUG uses fuel cell integration and purchases from Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), who on Tuesday Oct 28 reported better EPS than estimates and a revenue on line with the consensus. BLDP traded up 7.95% today. FCEL who competes with PLUG also traded up around 3% today. FCEL has decelerated in revenue growth, but is still leading in total revenue with more reported in their Q3 than PLUG Q2 and Q2 BLDP combined. This may sound bad, but PLUG hasn't reported yet and their growth is far better than FCEL's over 2015. PLUG Q1 to Q2 revenue grew from 9.4M to 24M. BLDP Q1 to Q2 revenue grew from 9.3M to 11.2M and Q2 to Q3 grew 11.2M to 16M. FCEL Q1 to Q3 revenue FELL from 41.7M to 41.4M. Whether or not this shows competition is affecting their revenue, we can clearly see the growth is strong for PLUG. PLUG and BLDP revenues account for ~40M while FCEL's is a little over 40M.


It gets even better when we look at Earnings Per Share compared to a competitor known as HydroGenics that traded up 4.29% today. They will deliver below expected revenue for Q3 when they report the day after PLUG, guaranteed. As for FSYS, they will report on the same day as HydroGen and I believe they will show increased revenue at the same solid growth, but they create revenues from many different applications, few that relate to PLUG directly.

I'd keep going on, but let's just let the stock in the next few weeks speak for itself.

I think its a STRONG BUY right now. They report earnings Monday so if at any point you see a buy-in price. you like, I'd take it

SIDE NOTE:

I was discussing NAT earlier and on 10/27 I said

when it was trading at 14.82 and is now 15.46. I'm not sure if it'll continue or not, oil in general is volatile as hell right now, even though NAT isn't too crude price oriented.

AND FINALLY:

I don't really know retail very well, but I really like BBBY and think it is INSANELY cheap right now. I think it looks a bit like a 123 bottom formation.

PSPS:

APD has products implemented into the gendrive fuelcells as well as some revenue from the honda deals. They don't seem to trade in unison like all the fuelcell companies do for a few obvious reasons.

 

1) 100k was an example, i don't think there are properties that cheap in parts of the world where rent garners you 25k/year (at least none in boston ). if you wanna throw around some numbers for what you spent it'll be a more informed conversation, but definitely understand not wanting to do that
2) yes, you get 25k per year (less repairs, upkeep, utilities, other misc fees, etc.) and assuming you can keep the stream of tenants constant
3) liquidity is a huge risk with this kind of thing. if properties start to devalue, you're either going to sell at a large discount to current value or wait it out, and your money could be doing other things for you in that time. that and tenants will disappear make it a considerable beast. also, unlike, say, two relatively uncorrelated stock prices, housing markets are locally correlated, and strongly so (as you say, location is key). the fact that you're less likely to diversify (ie, own a dozen properties in different cities) makes you more prone to one area "crashing," which is another thing to keep in mind
4) my 30k number was also an example. though i don't think 10% compounded annually is impossible to achieve with shrewd investing and a little bit of luck

nb - this is all pretty much speculation. i don't own retail properties so feel free to bash me if it's wrong. but i really, truly believe that if it were so profitable, there wouldn't be as many opportunities to buy and sell properties as there are now; large players would dominate markets, and profits would approach zero (some sort of equilibrium/efficient market stuff going on here)

 

PLUG having a solid open. Most of my positions are up about 7% more. I also made a virtual positions (fake money) on BLDP and BBBY to see if my hunch on those two are right. BLDP up about 5% right now and BBBY up about 1.5%.

I really think BBBY is about to BREAK OUT. Similar retailers have had good revenues and overall Bed Bath and Beyonds growth is solid and reliable.

I still like NAT but won't take any positions because of how oil is in this market.

PLUG should report great revenues with operating costs staying relatively the same. Their new deal with HD should boost a lot of their numbers, like the WMT deal with PLUG before.

 

PLUG pushing with lots of support. The biggest resistance point early morning was 2.85, then it was pushed to 2.90 and currently we can see a new resistance forming at around 2.93ish. I'm still excited to see a 3.00, whenever it comes.

GEVO is insanely cheap. I believe their growth this quarter is going to be surprising as hell seeing as how their chemical (and some biofuel) channels have been supported within the sector. Shares are discounted as hell

SUPER BULLISH ON GEVO

BULLISH ON PLUG, BUT NO PROMISES SINCE IT'S ALREADY GONE UP OVER 20%

SUPER BULLISH ON GEVO

 

starbucks has given me a nice return of 8-10% in the process of 3 months.. really good IMO, its a great growth stock & the fastest one to recover since the 1000 point drop back in july...

SolarCity is looking enticing to buy at below 30, i previously owned it and sold for a 20% profit.. They have locked in a lot of people last quarter not this quarter unfortenetly.. if the stock goes to $25 or near 25 i will be purchasing more...

Apple is nicely returning and growing since the concerns are over, hopefully many of you bought @100,

Alibaba is doing well since it bottomed at 60... good earnings & futures ahead...

Celgene Biotech is a nice long term biotech stock compared to the rest, you guys should check that out, its 10 year & 1 ytd is better than Gillead Science which imo is not good for long term....

Netflix is pretty nice, imo all the concerns with it are silly because they are expanding and slowly recovering @108 right now

If you guys are looking for a really nice growth stock that kind of is flat right now.. but did great in 1 year of 130% return check out COKE, its the bottling company...

And of course Facebook, glad it finally broke $100, to me Facebook is going to kill Google, they are already working on their algo for search and will probably end up overtaking google as the main search engine people use, plus with what Facebook is planning in the future is great... you should all check out www.internet.org it's by facebook and they have a great mission out for them