Dicing & Mathmematics

I was thinking of putting this under a RuneScape thread, but I think it is better here.

So my topic of discussion is dicing & the law of probability.

Plenty of people say "If you lose 5 times a row, you have less of a chance to lose the 6th time" I tend to disagree. Because the rolls are independent from each other, it doesn't matter what you roll the first 5 times, the 6th roll will be completely independent as if you're rolling the first time. It is possible for a person to lose 10times, or 100 times in a row. But they don't because the chances are 50/50 each time. If you lose 5 times in a row, you have the same chance (50/50) of winning/losing as if you are rolling the first time.

It grinds my gears when people say "Dice small amounts of money because you'll gain more overtime because the laws of probability say you'll win more then if you stake big the first time" The chance on each roll is still 50/50 regardless, it's just if you're lucky or not.

What do you guys think? Anyone here a math whiz that wants to take this on.

 

This is the most commonly talked about system in staking and dicing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(probability_theory)

 

Yes, there is an important distinction to make between the probability of losing 6 times in a row (a 1.5% chance) and - having lost 5 times in a row - of losing the 6th time (a 50% chance). It's a fairly basic concept in mathematics.

(Although, there are some rather counterintuitive examples of probability theory; ie, the Monty Hall problem).