Unless Runescape start to look at individual players randomly, the gold they have and their skills. Lets say a level 3, joined November 2011 (this month), all skills level 1, maybe wcing 10. And that level 3 has a phenomenal amount of gold, lets say 30m. Jagex cannot find an explaination to how this gold was produced in this amount of time, so they look deeper.
They find out that the gold was given (or so they think) by a player called "pk g0d11". So they look at there log. And also lets say this guy is a gold seller. They notice he has 10B+, decent stats to back it up. But why has he given this level 1 some gold? They look deeper into this char. They find out that this player has been giving over 1000 players millions.
So they look at a handful of the other chars, looking at the IP's and determining the location of them. They are completely different locations to this char, and its impossible this char to have moved over 1000 times in a few years, and the chars they looked at, they are all decent levels.
They rack up enough evidence, this gold seller gets banned.
10B out of the economy.
Its only a matter of time until they start doing this imho.
I like the way you thought this out, although jagex will never actually start randomly selecting accounts, checking them, and looking through all their logs just to stop one gold seller. They simply do NOT have the manpower to do such a tedious job, Although I'm not saying that this hasn't happened... But this is usually a case of when someone reports someone directly to jagex, with screenshots, or other information.
I agree with you that gold prices will rise, But I also think that his is an elaborate scheme to get people to buy their gold! Either way, gold prices will eventually fall when iBot Updates, and this whole commotion is over. I assume that most legitimate, mass botters use the iBot software, so I expect the mass bots to be back. I Also assume that most of these bots will become banned quickly, because of the email leak, and many botters being threatened legally (their accounts are now flagged, which means much greater chance of ban). Either way, runescape IS an ECONOMY, the prices will fluxuate. JaGeX can't just simply stop bots, Even if they have jacmob... Places such as iBot, and RiD have GREAT scripters, and coders that will always be learning, and expanding their knowledge in their field, and updated bots to combat jagexs' acts against bots.
no matter what happens, I advise against mass botting (I bot my accounts.. But I don't gold farm.. If your a gold farmer, fuck you! YOU'RE the reason jagex did this...), and buying gold. I think that you can easily earn your own gold, it really takes nothing. Myself for example. Last week I was cleaned for 1B. I recieved a 50M loan from a friend, and have turned that 50M into almost 700M in about 5-7 days.
TL;DR: Prices are rising, They will eventually fall again, If your feeling lucky, give it a try... But as soon as bots come back, expect the prices to drop dramatically. ooh.. and fuck gold farmers
Think of it this way you want to get 99 prayer really fast it'll cost around 300mil and boom that's 300mil gone becuase you can't get those bones back. But!! The people who sold the bones get the $$$ so basicly all the cash is still there it's just people think that since the bones are gone the rsgp would be too but it isn't it's still there!!!
I disagree, 300M still left the economy, just not in cash.
You're incorrect.. Just look at the last two weeks. Gold has increased by almost 50% (.4 to .6).. If this doesn't point to a correlation I'm not sure what does.. (Not to mention gold's steady decline as gold farming increased a few months ago)
I don't think this has anything to due with the amount of gold circulating in the Runescape economy. I beleive that the rise in price is caused by PANIC.