Runescape Bonds

Bonds are a terrible money sink. Why would anyone pay 10% to re-trade a bond? Unless you are holding them long-term expecting the price to rise, there is no reason to buy a bond unless you wish to redeem it, or you get it >10% cheaper than market price. 95% of the time people will redeem Bonds after the first trade (which has no 10% fee).

You're right, this update does absolutely nothing to stop bots / farming. Jagex is effectively charging over $0.70/M for gold. This leaves a huge gap between their prices and average GP sellers. You don't run someone out of business by selling something at double the price.

It's simply another propaganda style announcement from Jagex. They treat the community as if they're a bunch of morons. Anyone who isn't on Jagex's nuts can see that this is only about one thing: revenue. The company's shareholders have likely been pushing this move for ages, and they've finally given into their demands. Imagine seeing all the revenue involved in gold sales, as an investor, and knowing that all this money is going to people outside the company. They want a piece of the pie.

 

They just want people who haven't bought gold yet to use the bonds instead of the black market. They must know the bonds won't do shit to stop RTW. They can't be that stupid.

 

The price of bonds will inevitably crash though resulting in an increase in the price per mil as time goes on

 

I think you're overlooking things. Bonds are a really good investment at the moment. Currently gp is expensive if u buy off jagex, but in the longer term, as more people choose to buy members with gp by purchasing bonds, the price of bonds will rise to a level where buying gold off the black market/jagex is indifferent in cost for the buyer.

What one can do now is, as an alternative to Option 1(buying mems off jagex) is Option 2: Buy GP off black market for .32/mil> Buy 2 bonds for 6M each> Cash in bonds for 1 months mems. Total cost for 1 months mems: 12*$0.32~$4 bux.

Alot of players will do this as it's a cheaper way of getting membership... Thus causing the demand for bonds to rise (at current prices). This will cause the blackmarket price of GP to increase (as more ppl are buying GP off the black market to purchase bonds to exchange for mems) and the bond price to increase. Equilibrium will be reached when the cost of obtaining members via bonds is no different (or maybe a bit less) to the cost of buying it in the regular way from jagex (8 bux?)...

If the price of blackmarket GP rises to say $0.35/mil, then we can calculate the corresponding bond price: $8/$0.35 = ~23m/2 = 11.5m. (divide by 2 as it takes 2 bonds for 1 months membership). This is the bond price that would make players indifferent from buying mems the regular way (buying from jagex for $8) or buying mems using Option 2: buy rsgp from blackmarket>exchange gp for bonds>exchange bonds for membership.

*Because the 2nd option is a hassle, it makes sense that it will give some sort of money saving for the effort, e.g. saving of a dollar or 2. If people deemed the effort worth $1 saved per month of membership, then the equilibrium bond price that would make ppl indifferent from the 1st or 2nd option of obtaining members would be: $7/$0.35=~20m/2=10m each... etc.

...The price of bonds will rise as people see them as a cheap alternative to purchasing mems (through use of blackmarkets)... They will stop rising in price when the money saved purchasing members using Option 2 is deemed insufficient by the market for the additional effort it requires.

I say before too long bonds will rise to and stabilize at ~12m per. This would equate to GP costing: $5/12=$0.42 cents per mil off jagex, which is only marginally more than black market prices.

If this causes black market prices to decrease in order to be competitive against jagex, then this will have the effect of people using Option 2 to get membership again... as people do this the bond price will rise again. E.g. if GP falls to $0.2 in black markets, then referring back to *, the price of bonds will need to be: $7/$0.2=35m/2=17.5m per in order for players to be indifferent from obtaining mems via Option 1 or Option 2.... As the bond price increases, buying GP from jagex in this example would now be: $5/17.5=$0.286 which is close to the black market price of $0.2/m....(The cost of GP from jagex moves with the blackmarket, keeping the gap small). We can conclude that goldsellers lowering prices will not be beneficial to them as the price of GP from jagex will fall as well. As the cost of GP from Jagex is only slightly higher than the cost of GP from blackmarkets, blackmarkets will lose business.

Option 2 only exists if blackmarkets do... so blackmarkets will continue to operate, but with less business. Business will decline greatly.


All this analysis is based on the assumption that RS players are rational and see Option 2 as a viable way of obtaining members, which many of them won't. Hence it is flawed but you get the idea..

 

price check on bonds anyone? im curious where it has come by now.

 

i hard around 6.5-7m.

 

@ MrRS, bond prices falling will always be a good thing for the black market. JaGeX's bond prices (irl) are constant while gold has a varying value. And bonds will never stabilize at a price where JaGeX beats/equals the black market because their existence (and therefore their utility) depend completely on the black market itself. I expect their prices to look sinusoidal.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they get rid of them within the next few months.

 

bla bla bla potato logic

There will always be a cost difference due to risk and return. There will always be a cost difference because its pegged to membership. Memberships have a limited need @ 2 a month. What exactly do people who sell gold do with bonds, after they have membership? Eventually redeem them for RS store credit and buy some overpriced t-shirts and key chains?

 

Just a quick update: I managed to buy a bond on RuneScape for 4.1M.
They are still into a big drop

 

This could either really help them or really hurt them in the long run. I feel like Jagex is getting a little desperate now and they're just trying to cash out before it's too late lol

 

They are 13 years late.