Probability Question

Discussion in 'SFA Archive' started by lcpl rolla, Jun 7, 2015.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
Probability Question
  1. Unread #1 - Jun 7, 2015 at 7:01 AM
  2. lcpl rolla
    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2014
    Posts:
    244
    Referrals:
    0
    Sythe Gold:
    0

    lcpl rolla Active Duty Military
    Banned

    Probability Question

    I was doing some research and I couldn't find a conclusive answer on the following question.

    On a game of chance, a dice / random number being picked (1-100) does the last number(s) have any affect on the next number being picked / rolled.

    Explain:
    Dice rolled: 92
    Dice rolled: 91
    Dice rolled: 87
    Dice rolled: 89

    Is there a better probability of a lower number being rolled Or is it similar to flipping a coin where no matter what the last flip of the coin has no affect on the next flip because its always going to be 50/50.

    I can see how no matter what the last roll will not affect the next roll and it will always remain that the next number to be rolled is a 1% chance (1-100).

    But at the same time knowing how trends and statistics go since four high numbers where rolled, and since it always is 1% chance to roll a number, the rolls should even out (to add lower rolls) so there should actually be a higher chance to roll a lower number.
     
  3. Unread #2 - Jun 7, 2015 at 7:51 AM
  4. Meteor
    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
    Posts:
    2,852
    Referrals:
    2
    Sythe Gold:
    753
    born 2late 2 explore the earth b0rn 2soon 2 explore the galaxy born just in time 2 browse sith d0t org Toast Wallet User Lanturn

    Meteor Grand Master
    Retired Global Moderator

    Probability Question

    No, previous rolls of a die do not affect later rolls; this is a concept known as independence. The next roll has the same chance of being a 100 as it does of being a 1.

    However, over time, with a very large number of trials, we would expect the average of all the rolls to approach the expected value (for a 100 sided die, 50.5) as per the law of large numbers.
     
  5. Unread #3 - Jun 7, 2015 at 3:03 PM
  6. Blade
    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Posts:
    7,252
    Referrals:
    12
    Sythe Gold:
    233
    Two Factor Authentication User Easter 2015 Valentine's Day 2015 Sythe's 10th Anniversary Christmas 2014 Verified Overwatch Master Halloween 2014 SytheSteamer
    OG Club Detective Pokémon Trainer

    Blade tfw 2hi lmao
    Retired Sectional Moderator Cracker Head

    Probability Question

    This section is for intelligent discussion and debates, not math questions.

    As well, answered.
     
< Discarding 'Zwarte Piet' in Holland. | >

Users viewing this thread
1 guest
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.


 
 
Adblock breaks this site