Probability Question

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Probability Question
  1. Unread #1 - Jun 7, 2015 at 7:01 AM
  2. lcpl rolla
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    Probability Question

    I was doing some research and I couldn't find a conclusive answer on the following question.

    On a game of chance, a dice / random number being picked (1-100) does the last number(s) have any affect on the next number being picked / rolled.

    Explain:
    Dice rolled: 92
    Dice rolled: 91
    Dice rolled: 87
    Dice rolled: 89

    Is there a better probability of a lower number being rolled Or is it similar to flipping a coin where no matter what the last flip of the coin has no affect on the next flip because its always going to be 50/50.

    I can see how no matter what the last roll will not affect the next roll and it will always remain that the next number to be rolled is a 1% chance (1-100).

    But at the same time knowing how trends and statistics go since four high numbers where rolled, and since it always is 1% chance to roll a number, the rolls should even out (to add lower rolls) so there should actually be a higher chance to roll a lower number.
     
  3. Unread #2 - Jun 7, 2015 at 7:51 AM
  4. Meteor
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    Probability Question

    No, previous rolls of a die do not affect later rolls; this is a concept known as independence. The next roll has the same chance of being a 100 as it does of being a 1.

    However, over time, with a very large number of trials, we would expect the average of all the rolls to approach the expected value (for a 100 sided die, 50.5) as per the law of large numbers.
     
  5. Unread #3 - Jun 7, 2015 at 3:03 PM
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    Probability Question

    This section is for intelligent discussion and debates, not math questions.

    As well, answered.
     
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