I think I took a quick skim through that some time ago. All I remember was it looked messy. If he refunded $6k, good on him. He's used bogla, where I work livechat, a fair bit in the past and I've never had issues with him or his payments. He's also made small talk with me there so my opinion could look biased, but I don't really want to read over that if it's as messy as I remember and put much thought into it. If he was clean for 6 months since his last scam(s), he refunded that much money, and he even refunded payments where the victim had no proof, then I'd have supported it assuming his pardon looked genuine enough. If he just scammed, paid back weeks later and attempted a pardon that's an automatic no from me. I'm not sure if people can still pardon immediately after a scam, but I'll say no to just about any scammer that has not been banned for at least 6 months.
Proving you can and have changed is a long process. If 3 months is just enough to refrain some users from ban evading, unlike with 6 months, then they just believe they can get away and haven't really changed. There's been quite a few people who's ban evaded thinking it's fine and that they wouldn't be caught because 6 months is too long. This just postpones your ban and can make things a lot worse in the end.
Probemas/Axelus is actually a good example of this, and I'm sure some blame me since I work for his competitor and believe I had a hand in swaying the votes. When in reality the feelings were mixed but he didn't serve his ban because he ban evaded, the staff felt like they did not want to set a precedent by encouraging users to ban evade, and once they're successful and caught, that they could get a free pass because clearly they're not a threat. I was one of those who believed 6 months was too long for a petty offense, but the options were pardon or wait 6 months. I felt like pardoning him outright wasn't acceptable since he'd have served no punishment either. In his case, if he came clean on his own I'd probably have supported it immediately, or let him come back in 3 months. With that said, maybe if staff say you can try again in X months would work better. However that case is like a needle in a haystack, and that didn't even happen since he didn't come clean on his own.
tl;dr 3 months is too short but 6 months is fine