Runescape Items as Real-Life Investments

An interesting idea came to me today. Chatting on MSN, I realized that certain RS items (Namely, Discontinued Items), are not only valuable investments in-game, but also valuable RL $ investments. That is, their value in terms of Real $ has historically increased. Let us begin with examining the Blue Party Hat.

At the end of Free Trade in 2007, a Blue Phat traded for about 450M maximum. The price of gold in 2007 (Average of Buy + Sell Price) was about $3/M. This made a Blue Party Hat's value on the real market approximately $1,350 USD. Now, when Free Trade was abolished, this price eventually sunk down to its minimum price of ~300M in the summer of 2009. At this point, gold was hard to value in terms of real $, because the costs included labour.



However, people did pay about $4.00/M+ retail for gold back in 2009. Either way, it did drop down with the removal of Free Trade. However, Blue Party Hats quickly regained momentum. By the final months of Free Trade, Blues sold for ~600M + $500. For simplicity's sake, let's value gold in Jan 2011 @ 1.25/M. So, $1250. Basically regaining its Free Trade 2007 price, despite the fact that the game was much less popular, and rares were much less popular in Trade Limits.

Now, fast forward to Free Trade 2011. Blues have skyrocketed. Their in-game price is a whopping 3.3 Billion GP. Taking an average value of $0.75/M (my average of buy + sell price), a Blue Party Hat is worth $2,475 USD. From the original free trade price of $1,350 in Jan 2007, a Blue Party Hat has increased 83% in real value over these four years.

Compared to Other Investments:

Blue Party Hat Jan 1, 2007: $1,350 USD
Blue Party Hat TODAY (07/04/2011): $2,475 USD

CHANGE: +83%

Dow Jones Jan 1, 2007 - 12,463.00 pts
Dow Jones TODAY (07/04/2011) - 12364.08 pts

CHANGE: -0.8%

NASDAQ Jan 1, 2007 - ~2400 pts
NASDAQ TODAY (07/04/2011) - 2793.95 pts

CHANGE: Approximately +16.4%

As you can see, if you bought a few Blue Party Hats in 2007, you were beating the stock markets by a massive amount.

 

This actually made me laugh IRL. Way to own the stock markets R2.

 

just started with it. Merchanting rs gp. doing ti for about 2 months now and got : 2 yellows, 1 red, 2 blues. not rlm invested. It's making me approx €2500,- each month

 

I <3 you.

Im gonna convince my dad to let me invest in phats

 

freaking nice!!! I wish i had 1 phat

 

This is why I want a Partyhat, excellent analysis

 

It is a really good way to invest, as with the old stuff, real life coins etc.

For example, when such things happens, as Chessy, loses many rares, it makes rares more expensive.

If you have an enough money and time, investing in such items can make you a big profit.

 

Except due to the volatile nature of JaGex's decisions + risk of having your account banned you could very well lose it all and you have absolutely no real way of forecasting this.

 

nice didnt think about that

 

This isn't a groundbreaking idea. If you invest in a limited thing then you are sure to make money.

 

Agreed, there are risks with any investment. However, as of late, Jagex has barely been banning at all. The odds of a ban these days are well under 1%. As for drastic changes to the game, let's be honest, Jagex isn't bringing back Trade Limits. That would completely destroy all trust in their company not only for Runescape, but for ALL future games by the developper.

 

very nice find, but it just seems funny investing in RS items

 

But the truth is, predicting virtual items are hard.

I mean, one single game update can ruin it completely, right?

 

An actual real post in General.
Phenomenal.
Although it's too late here unless you're horribly massing to try for this, as well as the risk that Fagex will destroy the game, and the irl wealth of these items.
(high chance.)

 

Partyhats and rares are being lost, every day(or week, unsure)
Losing the total value of the item (the quantity, not the value.)

Rl stocks do not lose quantity.

It's only "fair" that discontinued items will continue to rise, even if they have set backs and drops.

 

Only thing is it takes one update that makes them un-tradeable, adds new similar items or to shut down the game to totally crush your investment.

Despite this though it really is going up, and rares will keep going up until the game ends or the mass population playing significantly decreases.

 

Both those scenarios are pretty remote, and there would likely be some warning, allowing you to recover at least PART of the investment.

I still don't think it's worth the risk to do this in bulk though.

 

However RS real-life trading is not a safe investment, you risk getting banned and losing your entire investment.

 

There is one thing you do not factor in.

Investing in RS is like investing in currency to then buy shares, it's exceptionally risky; much much more risky than the stock market.
Add to that it's a virtual game so there are risks of getting banned, shutting down etc.

Now one thing about the share market, it's actually rather hard to lose money if your somewhat smart.
If you play your cards right in the share market, you can easily double your money yearly, or at least make a 30-40% return.

Now aside from the volatile nature of the RS market, the simple fact is your best example is a 20.75% increase over 4 years. Most good people playing the share market easily attain this.

 

It's a good way, but you can get banned + if Jagex ever removes free trade again, it's worth nothing.