First Solar

I hear you on everything you're saying - and I agree to an extent. But there are so many instances where things are already factored into the market. Like holiday sales and things like that. I guess where I'm from everybody was so convinced the fed were riking the hates that I didn't realize in other areas of the world perhaps the community wasn't so convinced, but me and everybody I know went into that fed meeting 99% sure the rates were going to raised off the bottom and that's why I figure the market didn't move

and btw there was data, the feds said they'd increase rates by the end of the calender year and had tons of mounting pressure

On the day before the meeting every podcast I listened to was talking about "the day we will probably see the rate hikes." But are we really here debating whether or not people we don't even know thought the feds would hike rates? I thought the market was ready, you think it wasn't - the data supports me but in the end we'll never know.

As for market efficiency I think it's safe to say we all know what that term means, but it's also pretty safe to say that in the real world no market is entirely efficient

 

double post mb

 

The data doesn't support anyone especially with market efficiency theory.. I am not saying the market was prepared or illprepared for that matter... The market on the day of announcement was happy to hear the fed raised rates...it signals strength in the economy... On monday however the market took back all the gains and then some around 250 points because fear that the Fed would continue to raise rates as it has historically shown...

Now your missing a BIG piece of what was going on at this time... Market was in fear of GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN.... the reason why many people were fearful of the fed actually not raising rates because there were concerns of CHINA'S ECONOMY and how it would affect the GLOBAL ECONOMY... (caps are just to stand out, nothing aggressive), so many people were actually not wanting the fed to raise rates because it could impact globally and with-everything going on with china at the time (just like the past week where the market has lost of 1000 points) people were betting it was going up (i wasn't; i had a strong feeling the fed would raise rates.)
the other thing you barely-notice in my post from earlier was that the first meeting of the year, the FED did not raise rates.. by a 7-1 vote... which is crazy when you think about it.. a SUPER MAJORITY did not want to raise rates, it wasn't split.. so there is no way to predict that the fed would not be split on the second meeting because of a SUPER MAJORITY not wanting to raise rates the first time.. but yeah, anyways onto a new discussion i guess..


also...refering to no market is efficient..... here's what EMT says..


Accepting the EMH in its purest form may be difficult; however, three identified EMH classifications aim to reflect the degree to which it can be applied to markets:
1. Strong efficiency - This is the strongest version, which states that all information in a market, whether public or private, is accounted for in a stock price. Not even insider information could give an investor an advantage.
2. Semi-strong efficiency - This form of EMH implies that all public information is calculated into a stock's current share price. Neither fundamental nor technical analysis can be used to achieve superior gains.
3. Weak efficiency - This type of EMH claims that all past prices of a stock are reflected in today's stock price. Therefore, technical analysis cannot be used to predict and beat a market.

 

well the cause for the 7-1 vote was because inflation hadn't hit it's 2% target, but over time they got over that. I agree that the market is scared of an economic slow down because china is slowing wayyyy the fuck down. It's very annoying that our market's only guidance right now is oil and china