Effect of New Detection on Economy?

I remember reading somewhere that at the current moment Jagex is able to detect something like 95% of bots. The reason they do not all get banned is because of how they support the economy.

If this is true that means that with the "mass bans" rumoured to be taking place soon that means that Jagex may start banning all bots it detects. This would mean that botting as we know it will be stopped until new ones come out etc, etc.

If all of this is infact true the effect on the economy will be MASSIVE. In my opinion the price of all commonly botted ores, wood, essence etc would sky rocket.

Anyway just some thoughts and all based on rumours and things I have heard.
Would love some others opinions.

 

Yeah, the prices of resources such as wood and coal would sky rocket. But, if you played legitimately and you gathered them yourselves, you would make more money, so this would benefit players in a way.

 

erm, as bad as they hate to admit it, ALOT of runescape accounts are bots or are botted on at some point or another. There are alot of sites just like this that aid/support/encourage botting and other rule-breaking actions, and if they thought they lost alot of money on the last ban, I would love to see the cheeky face of the owner of Jagex the next morning after banning 95% of these so called "known botters". The guy would choke on his crumpet (or whatever they eat over there, idk) and Jagex would definitly go in the red in the RS department. As bad as they hate to admit it, botting is something that keeps the economy together. Think about how many firemaking capes are out there alone, Each one took almost 100k maple logs and there are thousands of firemaking meaning billions of maple logs. Do you think legit players cut all of those? How about the millions of sharks/swordfish/lobsters that are eaten every day, you think legit players cooked all of those and fished all of those? No way......Do you think more than a handful of people have actually gotten 99 runecrafting and 99 smithing and 99 mining all by thereself legitly from 1 to 99? doubt it, especially recently.

The fact of the matter is, most of the good moneymaking areas and supplies are in members areas, so if someone wants to make 10 accounts to bot sorceror garden on all of them to fund there rich main, so be it they are paying jagex at least $55 per month if not more, and Im sure jagex doesnt care that they are making the prices of herbs go down slightly or that that guys main is unfairly rich. In the end they are a company, and if people are making your company richer, you are an idiot to shut them down on principle or on morals, yea there breaking the rules, BUUUUUTTTTTTT................banning half the rs community is a bad choice from the business standpoint.

Also another thing to think about, why would they still be rolling back and banning people every day if they were saving up for this so called "mass-ban"?

I think its just to scare everyone, say your going to mass ban known botters on a day that hasn't even been set yet (day of update) so that at least for a few weeks the botting community is up in arms and scared to death to turn on that client. Funny thing is, when everyone DOESN'T get banned, they will all most likely think its because they layed low for awhile so Jagex succeeds, LOL.

 

They detect 95%? I seriously doubt that.

Most free members are botters. Most pkers are botters.

Bots get smarter everyday. They won't be easily cracked down on.

 

Yes but if you look at the way Runescape traffic has been declining along with just the general activeness of players ontop of their new game launch it could all be a final shot at regaining their profits.

I am sure that they would not ban every single player that has ever botted but if they made a large increase in bansof active botters it would overtime have a huge effect.

Think about this, is everything you stated really such a bad thing? Most people are botting to make money to compete with everyone else who is botting. A full on stop to botting would create a whole new game. Sure, it would take time for the wealth to spread out and all that but I for one would love to play in a bot free game where things like skillcapes actually meant something.

It's all just what ifs...

 

I haven't been botting for the last few weeks, ever since the trade announcment.

What im scared about is thay they're going to use this as a way to catch RWT. Remember how easy it was to get caught in the old days? all they had to do is look at the trade logs and see that you got like 40m for nothing and ban you.

I'm scared to transfer money around basically.

 

Sorry but those statements are false, Bots are detected threw mouse movements and randoms only. No possible way that comes out to 95%

 

I have to agree with shey. I think jagex is actually starting the realize how much more money they can be making then previously. Why ells would they bring back the wilderness after 3 years and with all this advertisement and phases. Then Roll backs, these allow people to still keep their accounts therefore we can continue to pay for membership. If they were to Mass Ban all botters they would lose a drastic amount of money.

 

You really think that Jagex isn't capable of detecting bots if they wanted?

If there was no membership fee their bot detection would be flawless. A company like Jagex has the capabilities to stop botting if they wanted. We are talking about million of dollars and some of the worlds best developers.

I am talking about the fact that altough it would be a large initial loss the potential of a bot free game would be huge plus the boost from the wilderness and free trade returning.

 

I doubt it's that high in number, I know loads of bots which are 99% undetectable which means that 95% would be to high, ofcourse banning mass bots is terrible for the economy.

 

How would a bot free runescape be a huge plus? You must not realize how much of the everyday resources that you use come from bots and the decent price you pay for them now is because bots supply enough for everyone. With out bots things like food and potions would sky rocket.

 

That would also mean that obtaining/making them would earn you a huge profit?
It would reshape the whole economy.

Anyway, I would have to agree due to several good points raised that I doubt a huge ban will happen.

Still find it hard to understand why Jagex would concentrate on their new systems and mass bans then in their updates if they don't plan on doing anything.
If it stays the same when free trade comes back it's going to be like the old days of seeing lvl 3's everywhere but now we have better bots..

 

i don't think it's as easy as you believe.
a lot of software used to detect it is very costly and probably requires some insane licensing fee to run it on a million accounts.

also, jagex has to assume most things in your favor no matter how unlikely the paired events might be.
because lets face it people can do some crazy stuff. there's all sorts of over the counter legal stimulants
that rival amphetamines, people really do stay up playing games for DAYS straight through aid of drugs.

you could have OCD or something, and or again be heavily medicated. safe mode? probably playing on a laptop.
most people i play games with nowadays use voice chat, not type in games and simply ignore people in them.


there's a million factors and it's foolish to just assume yeah they can detect everything.
some people have a crap wireless mouse, they freak out, especially if they never clean the
optical eye and it's distracted by hairs.

my guess is the way they get most people for botting is finding someone who's gotten
stuck on an area for hours and hours, or literally clicked on the same object for 1000 times repeatedly.
something really obvious.

again, everything is speculation.
i also speculate they won't just up and ban tons of people at once, especially not on their 10th anniversary.

 

Good points.

My question again is though, how are they going to stop the mass increase in bots, because unless they have actually upgraded their detection F2P is going to be just floods of bots?

 

That is a good point, but I never said that F2P accounts wouldn't get a mass ban. f2p is a whole different story and If there IS a mass ban at all I would suspect all the bald headed woodcutters will take the main punishment because Jagex loses no money by ridding rs of those accounts and tbh if they want people to upgrade to members, the last thing they need is a new player to think that rs is infested with 2nd rate bots.

IMO, even if they do have amazing multi-million dollar detection facilities set up for RS scanning, they have to consider all of the pros and cons of implementing it 100%. As it was stated, there are always bugs so if someone just seemed to present botting trends and really wasn't and they get banned, they will never come back to the game, and might even spread the word and take a few paying members with them. Also, yes the idea of a bot-free runescape has its positives, stuff is worth more because there is alot less of it, but think of the few people who don't get caught, that 5% of people they CANT detect will be money-hungry tyrants. They would have an un-imaginable advantage over the people that play legit as they would have little botting competition, and Jagex doesn't want to create a new problem by fixing an old one.

Again, it all comes down to money, Jagex loves rs and they love there players but as a business they love money more. WHY have we drug this wilde/FT voting bull**** out for this long when the majority is utterly apparent? ad money. Why do they announce a "Brand new amazing 95% accurate bot detection system to make RS better than ever!!!"?? because with the announcement of the return of old wilde/FT there are alot of veterans coming back, most of them most likely legit players because bots weren't nearly as high-tech and prominent in 2007 and previous to that, they are coming back to rs to give it another chance, do you think Jagex wants them to enter into a world of botting everywhere? NO but we already talked about how they cant just ban everyone, but a mass ban threat?!? now thats a good plan. Lets just scare all the botters to hold off for a few weeks, let all the returners get a good impression of rs as it is today, all the while not actually losing any money by actually disabling any accounts.

Not saying Im right on all of this, but thinking from a business point of view its the best I can come up with. Who knows, maybe Jagex is off there rocker and they really WILL ban everyone that bots, and if so then the veterans will get exactly what they wanted, runescape as it was in 2007. Old wilde and FT will be back, and most people that joined after 2007 will be banned, will literally be as close to 2006 as Jagex could get, right down to the people who play, LOL.

 

i just don't think it's possible to ban all bots, or even 95%.
software is a pretty unregulated industry for saying whatever you want.
games release all the time buggy as can be, yet you can't
return software or fight back. ex: age of conan dx10 on box, not in game for a year.
nobody enforces any claims so they are going to be very positive.

i've played online rpgs since ultima online came out and have never seen
an mmorpg that didn't have bots. hardcore gamers know they will be there,
it's something they learn to live with. they may not like it and some are jr cops as you know.
but usually the bots are already there in beta's all the way through retail.

reminds me of piracy vs buying legit. humans code the games and the bots or cracks,
so the battle just goes on forever basically.