To all HODLER's in 2018, this is why i am bearish..

Source: Total Marketcap All Coins Logarithmic Regression
Source2: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value

This was a prediction OP made in 2014:

Don't get blinded by all the "2018 will be crypto year" talk everywhere.

I marked the beginning of 2017 with a red circle, this is where the majority (hopefully) of us here either joined the Ripple(XRP)/Ethereum(ETH) train, which makes me less concered, because we (luckily) caught the bottom of the bubble bursts.

However I see many new threads being opened lately with new "investors", which is why I decided to post this.

To sum up: Don't raise your expections, make sure to take out some profits to rebuy at a cheaper point and be don't be greedy, which is why i'll probably cashout 50% very soon.
My guess: we will touch the 1Trillion market cap and then collapse.

 

Image is broken

 

Image doesnt work

 

fixed.

 

Hello I am a new investor ready to make 10000% returns

What should I buy?

Edit: #dogecointomoon.

Haha!

 

Don't try and steal credit for my prediction! I already posted in the sythe discord about how one day when a china man tries to cash out his 30 billion it will crash the market. Plus I told everyone one day this "new influx of investors about to invest" will run out.

 

i literally quoted someone who made this chart in 2k14 lol

 

Another chart I saw:


This one predicts the crash won't be as severe.

 

the chart i posted is about the whole crypto market, not btc

 

Oh yeah, your chart is more long term as well. This one only tracks BTC until early January, there could be a slow bleed of the crypto market like in 2014.

 

@Butta

Where is the 2018+ predictions. It shows we are due to crash if I am correct?

It is not 100% clear to me.

 

lol TA don't work in crypto and crypto has proved this time and time again... most TAs are complete bullshit. Most fundamentals of investing and theories like Elliott Wave Principle just don't always work in crypto.

... However, I am bullish on short term, bearish in the short to medium term (1-3 years), because I believe there is way to much stupid money in crypto right now, and bullish long term. I think this is why you said "investors" no?

Also, lets not forget that if Satoshi (whomever it may be), touches their wallet, it could crash the market for good.

I do agree with @Boney that 1 whale can impact the market but I also believe that the sell off will only take those funds from the whales who got in early and allow it to trickle down to both new and old investors (even if some of them are just kids who think they are master investors because they made $500 on EOS). This would help spread the wealth and widen decentralization, but yes, I think the market is bearish (but won't remain that way for long).

 

this is based on 7 years of history, you can prefer to invest blindly

 

I don't invest blindly, I just don't take MOST TA into consideration as I have seen them fail time and time again. However, your graphs do seem to be pretty clear. I really wasn't talking about yours in particular, but just TA as a whole in crypto since I don't think fundamental investment strats always work in crypto.

This community is flooded with "traders" who make TA, and real traders who have experience with Forex and stocks, who make TA that just simply don't play out in their favor, so excuse me skepticism on TA.

I didn't mean this on a attack on YOUR TA honestly. I think you are right when you say "don't believe the 2018 is crypto's year BS", because this market is full of people who don't have a lot of experience with investing (I'll admit I am on of them, but I also don't pretend to day trade and I only buy and HODL for long term positions). These people make predictions like "2018 will be crypto's year" blindly because they get caught up in the hype and the money.

I do think 2018 will be the year for SOME coins. I have always held the belief that once there is a major correction, I only see a few coins retaining even a fraction of their value and the capital of these failed projects will eventually flow back into strong coins like ETH, BTC, LTC and maybe a few other alts like monero (because of its privacy) and maybe a few other fun tokens. The market is overvalued IMO

 

I agree that TA doesn't work as well in crypto but it still plays a good part at making educated guesses. Although a single twitter post from a company definitely can throw any TA prediction out the window... As seen with NULS this morning someone hacked there offical twitter and posted a announcement with a big company that was fake.. I made some good money off it since I just happened to be holding NULS with a ambitious sell order that it hit from the bullshit twitter post. I feel like the market is going to collapse and only the true value coins will survive, so I agree with you. Aside from the big ones, BTC, LTC, ETH ect... I feel like projects with good teams and relevant use will survive and be big profit. I'm mostly Bullish on OMG being a big player in the next few years. Got a decent stake in ICX and ENG as well. What's some of your under top 20 coins you like?

 

:/

 

TA isn't a magic bullet; the purpose of TA is risk reduction. If TA lets you make even 51% of trades correctly, then it is worth using.

 

I still think we have a way to go, maybe to around 1500% but we shall see. Always be cautious and have an exit plan.

 

charts btw

!academy

 

Exit plan ready