RWT Impact from Bot Nuke

As everyone has heard, the Bot Nuke took place on Runescape about two weeks ago. Now is a good time to look back and reflect upon what has really changed in-game, both for you as a player, and for us as a Runescape Gold Seller.

Right off the bat, the Bot Nuke update made nearly all bots obsolete. I won't get into too much technical jargon, but Jagex was targeting the new intelligent bots (known as reflection + injection bots). These bots were able to analyze their surroundings and adjust accordingly. They were "smart", and that made them near-impossible to detect.

Jagex decided to go directly to the bot creators themselves for a solution, and this is where the breakthrough came. For those who follow RSBuddy, you will be quite aware that the lead developer and founder "Jacmob" basically spilled all the beans to Jagex. He left his third party company for a position at Jagex itself, and with it he brought his knowledge on bots and how to stop them. This seemed to be the tipping point in the battle, and with his first-hand experience on RS macroing, he was able to help Jagex actually put a stop to 99% of the working bots online.

Because this was so effective, the Runescape landscape changed almost instantly. Auto-talkers disappeared from their usual perches around the RS world. Yew trees and Essence mines were suddenly free of clones chopping away endlessly. Runescape was back. And it showed us how bad the problem really was.

Before the botting update, the average population online in Runescape was a conservative 150,000. Today, that number is now lingering around 50,000. From this we get the picture... Nearly 2/3 of the players online (or 100,000 players) in Runescape were bots. That statistic is staggering. Now to put it in terms for RWT, let's assume out of these 100,000 botters, that 50% of them are Gold Farming at a rate of 200K per hour. That is equivalent to 10 Billion Gold entering the economy every hour, 240 Billion PER DAY!

As a result, we have seen an increase in the wholesale price of RS Gold. China market price has gone up 30% since the announcement. Most gold sites are having trouble just keeping up with demand. We've had to up our rates a bit, although we have made sure to keep them under the market average. Our rates increased about 15%.

All in all, buying Runescape gold right now seems like a great idea. Your purchase is steadily increasing in value, and you can always sell it back to reliable buyers such as myself when you are done.

What do you guys think about prices? Where will the majority of GP supply come from now? Remember, dicing / staking do not create wealth, they simply move it around.

 

While dicing and staking don't create wealth, they take wealth from the non-rwt component of rs and move it into the rwt component of rs (for the most part). Gold farmers don't create gold either, they do things like obtain bones or logs and as a result of this excess supply of items, the prices of them fall. The amount of gp in the game is for the most part actually pretty stable. The only ways you can really generate gp is by alching or monster killing where you get pure gp as a drop.

Prices are gonna keep increasing on gp but they'll stabilize with bulk buyers paying about .55-.60/m and reselling for .80-$.95/m

 

I think your right except for huge clans like DD whose owners make 2B off of each rank which is alot of money especially when it has 10+ ranks.

I think it will get to the point were (if the bots aren't fixed) China will have too hire people to ACTUALLY play for the gold.

I'm not sure though, those are my 2 cents

 

i hope the price of gold increases.. may even quit my day job if it does.

 

Looks like people are just going to have to face the facts, and start grinding their gold. However, I did my homework and did my research a few days ago. It looks like bot nuke day HAS worked. But for how long? If you have ever used punkbuster (an anti cheat service), when it released they said 99% of hacks are detected by the service.3 Days later, what do you know? a 14 year old kid gets an open source CoD2 hack, and adds 3 lines of code. Undetected for over a year before it got leaked.

What I'm suggesting is that all it takes to make a bot work again is trial and error. Trying new codes within the bot.

 

frost drags legit, woo! 3m per hour

 

Very insightful analysis. I gotta say, no matter which direction the gold prices go, I'm pretty happy things are back to the way they were. Although it would be nice to see the price of rsgp go up, as I mostly sell rather than buy.

 

I tend to think that price rise has less to do with the injection of RSGP, but more to do with the reduction of items available. RSGP is only another commodity, and when taken into comparison with logs, fish, and other mass-bottable consumables, it's a small section of the market. While it is true that FAR FAR less RSGP has been literally injected into circulation, it is undeniable that an incommensurable amount of items has been reduced from circulation.

Putting it simply:

Let's say 100% of Yew Logs are used to fletch. The market is in equilibrium, the price of Yew Logs is 100 RSGP. Now that botting has stopped, the price of Yew Logs has risen, not because of the RSGP circulation, but because of the item circulation. As such, Yew Logs now cost 200 RSGP (all hypothetical) and in turn the price of RSGP rises as you now need more of it for the same quantity of items.

I haven't even looked at the RS Market in months, so I can't forecast where the $/m ratio will equilibrize but I wouldn't be too surprised if it shot up past $1/m. As R2 said, I think it would be a great investment opportunity; if it does double (which isn't out of the question) you've made a 100% return, which is phenomenal.

 

Here is what I see in this post:

A statement that we know about the state of the economy put out by one, if not the largest, gold sellers here. He says buy gold, and since he is saying it most people will follow his word which is going to drive prices for gold up even higher even though the supply of gold is going to remain quite large for some time. Gold is a sellers market - it isn't controlled by 'buy votes' of the consumer so the sellers are able 'speculate' on the price. The largest gold suppliers control the price because you want to buy from them more than some no-name - think of it like branding. You would rather buy an iPod than some cheap Sony knock-off.

As an analysis I don't see the selling price going over $ .85 per mill unless the sellers try to drive it above that, because the bots have already brought so much gold into the economy that it is going to take literally years to sink it all into money sinks in the economy. There are many takes on the economy though.

 

Unless Runescape start to look at individual players randomly, the gold they have and their skills. Lets say a level 3, joined November 2011 (this month), all skills level 1, maybe wcing 10. And that level 3 has a phenomenal amount of gold, lets say 30m. Jagex cannot find an explaination to how this gold was produced in this amount of time, so they look deeper.

They find out that the gold was given (or so they think) by a player called "pk g0d11". So they look at there log. And also lets say this guy is a gold seller. They notice he has 10B+, decent stats to back it up. But why has he given this level 1 some gold? They look deeper into this char. They find out that this player has been giving over 1000 players millions.

So they look at a handful of the other chars, looking at the IP's and determining the location of them. They are completely different locations to this char, and its impossible this char to have moved over 1000 times in a few years, and the chars they looked at, they are all decent levels.

They rack up enough evidence, this gold seller gets banned.

10B out of the economy.

Its only a matter of time until they start doing this imho.

 

gold buyers cannot raise prices today $1/m and still expect to buy in bulk for $0.40/m, it just doesn't work like that .

 

Well, bot farmers don't really put much gold in the game =/
They bring in items, which are used to trade for gp .
It's are circulated daily, herbs > pots > gone , etc, they're more of a holder of the money, more value in items is coming in every day compared to the value of gold, gold's created via alching and selling items to stores etc, gold's taken out via construction, tanning, shops repairs
The only main loss of supply of gold is alch bots, and all the loss other bots are causing a price increase
Gold prices will raise, but not by too much =/

 

love how all the gold sellers encourage us to buy gold.
If it was an amazing opportunity as they claim, they would not mention this and rise their buying prices, yet it does not surprise me they try to buy for .40/mil

 

You're incorrect.. Just look at the last two weeks. Gold has increased by almost 50% (.4 to .6).. If this doesn't point to a correlation I'm not sure what does.. (Not to mention gold's steady decline as gold farming increased a few months ago)

 

What do you guys think about prices?Should be a bit higher
Where will the majority of GP supply come from now? gwd, monster drops,..

 

It's more the panic and everyone assuming it will raise, there's no actual decrease in the game's gold in reality =/

 

I sense a nice bit of social engineering to increase the price here ^.^

 

The actual amount of gold in the game is not the only factor in prices. Players who buy gold spend it almost immediately on items in-game. The amount of items in circulation (specifically raw materials) are now drastically cut. These items, unlike gold, have a massive sink. They are consumed by all skills in the game, and turned into Experience on a particular character. That experience is no longer transferable to any other player, and the log essentially disappears from the economy.

Now players face more and more competition getting these raw materials. The amount of gold in circulation has remained fairly constant, while the items to spend it on have now become increasingly expensive. However, not all items in the game have even seen a rise in prices (for ex, Yew Logs). These increases are reflected instead on gold prices themselves in the Black Market, and Rare values. Rare values have decreased quite heavily, and are a major holder of wealth. In this sense, value of GP has increased as well.

Finally, big sellers are getting hit for fairly massive amounts. Viou, myself, Ox, to name a few, have been hit for nearly 100B combined with resets. Other sites in China reportedly can get hit weekly by resets.

 

I expected it to rise to 1.00 again but it doesn't seem like thats happening any time soon.

 

ill sell u 8bil for 8gs? lol.. well yknow bots are still up, as in robots in disguise. if they get leeched, bots could possibly return.