Paypal dispute question

so, today i got scammed by the user Cracker_kf regarding MW3 key.

http://sythe.org/member.php?u=297744

the deal was 25$ for the key.
i payed him under "purchase of goods" on paypal, and he just went offline after that.

that wasnt my paypal account, it was my friend, and by the time he payed it was alrdy to late ( since i noticed his msn name doesnt match with his paypal name )

my friend has the paypal account for quite some time, never filed a dispute before and has bought a lot of stuff, so i guess he got some good rep there.

his credit card is bound to his account.

will i win the dispute ?

also, here's a screenshot, beware of this guy :

http://i41.tinypic.com/2quptht.jpg

im really worried and dont want to lose my money.