Why the IRL price of GP can do nothing but go down, right now.

This is a long read


I'm sure every single person checking this thread is utterly aware that Jagex banned what they claim to be "98% of the bots in the game", also claiming that a huge portion of those are gold farming accounts.

I'm now going to point out some things that some of you may have thought about, or possibly didn't think about and are just now realizing.


Jagex announced in the behind the scenes for October that they would be taking a stance against bots, causing many bot scripts never to work again.

They then announced more about it, saying it would specifically target reflection bots. Now as you may or may not know, RSBots runs primarily on reflection scripts and a very high majority of gold-farming bots come from RSBots.net. Be it paid or not.

They then went as far as to add a timer to the main page of RuneScape, calling this update "Bot Nuke Day" and giving a very short amount of time before launching this update that still showed up TWO HOURS late of 0:00:00 timer they had put up.

Again, I'm almost certain nearly every single person reading this thread knows all of this information, if you didn't know anything about it, now you do.


Now this, is where it gets interesting.

Checking through the sythe.org forums, I found a few threads asking about RWT bans, and if anyone had gotten one. I have yet to see one from trading GP in this duration of time.

With the amount of time Jagex gave botters to transfer the GP, billions upon billions were traded to secure accounts, to be held incase of such an emergency. The people transferring said GP unaware if the GP would be safe on the botted accounts, and rightfully so, being afraid to lose it.

This means, that with the time Jagex gave the botters and gold farmers to transfer this money, it was infact able to be secured. With Free-Trade still intact, this GP is ready to be sold to many gold-sites everywhere. Also player to player trades on sites such as the one you are reading this thread on.


Now, billions of GP is sitting on accounts, waiting for the price to rise. This is most likely not going to happen. With the amount of GP that is readily available to players nearly everywhere, and the huge decrease in player numbers, GP can't possibly rise.

Many bots (When I say many, I mean MANY) were bots for accounts that people actually played on. Those people would bot up skills, then buy GP. Its not exactly a hard concept to grasp. With alot of those accounts gone, they won't be buying GP nearly as much.

The amount of legitimate players has actually decreased as well. As to why, I'm not 100% sure. Many legitimate players don't buy GP anyway, but I know some do.

The main purpose of this thread is to show you that with less players, it will mean less demand for gold. With less demand for gold, more gold will be stockpiled. With less people buying the stockpiled gold, it will become more readily available. All of these things put together is what will cause the price to lower.

Now I know for a fact someone will post under this saying that gold trades haven't and won't slow down, people will always trade gold back and fourth, and blah blah blah. With all the information above you should be able to see that is complete bullshit. People don't sell GP here just to move money around. The highly known gold sellers make a profit off of what they buy it for, and what they sell it for. Its simple merchanting. The occasional gold seller will sell his/her gold when they quit playing to make some quick cash.

The gold buyers buy from these people, to turn around and sell it for a profit. With less people buying the gold these people are making a profit off of, they'll have to lower the prices. They aren't just going to trade back and fourth for the same price.

If you haven't got any clue what this thread has been about, please don't post about it. I honestly don't feel the need to explain much more than what I already have unless its a legitimate question.

 

I actually read that whole wall of text, and I kind of regret it. This is pure speculation here. The player base has decreased significantly because of the incredible amount of bot farming accounts that have been banned. Most of the actual people playing the game are still there, aswell as alot of people that 'casually' botted their accounts but did not use those accounts purely to farm gold and managed to avoid the banhammer. With the same amount of "real" players, I would guess that the demand for gold will remain pretty much the same as it is now, give or take a little.

But for the incredibly less amount of bots around to actually farm this gold that is demanded, the prospect of the botting clients not even being able to work for more than a few days before another update, and the probability that players are more likely to report bots now with the right-click report system, I would actually guess that the supply of gold would be much shorter than the actual demand, which would in turn make gold RISE. Though again - this is also just pure speculation and just a guess. There is no way to really know what is going to happen as it is pretty dependant on what happens to the bots, and whether or not hardcore goldfarmers will be able to adapt/find a way around this change.

 

The OP makes perfect sense. A simple scenario of supply and demand for the consumers.
Low supply & high demand = high price.
High supply & low demand (like demonstrated in the thread) = low price.

 

Precisely.

 

Yeah this makes complete sense and is a simple market principle. But the original post is assuming that there is going to be a low demand for RSGP. I don't really think the demand is going to change much at all, as most of the players buying the gold weren't banned. It was mostly the throwaway accounts that were made to FARM the gold that were banned, or are being banned currently or in the near future.

I don't know this for sure, but this would make more sense to me. As long as there are people playing Runescape, people are going to want to buy their gold to get ahead in the game. You could argue and say that there are less players right now (which the numbers show is true), but I think most of those players that are gone are simply just throwaway goldfarming accounts, and not actually the people who were purchasing the gold. I guess we will just have to wait and see. I personally don't think the price will change too drastically though.

 

I see your reasoning, but I don't agree with it.

I would presume the vast majority of people buying gold are non-botters? Seeing as there's no reason to be purchasing it when you can simply bot it yourself. So Jagex killing botting, the GP making factories, the supply of GP will, EVENTUALLY, go down (despite people stocking up beforehand).

I don't think the demand's really decreased at all. Perhaps it momentarily has, but I have no doubt with bots out of the picture that demand'll start shooting up.

 

To be honest, if anything, now that I am playing legitimately, I'm more likely than ever to buy gp.

I imagine this is part of the reason Mod MMG greatly encouraged people at Runefest to not buy gold. He says it in one of the Q & A sessions on the runescape youtube channel I believe.

 

Interesting concept, however as already announced by the major botting 'firms', their bots will be back up quite soon.

Therefore the price of GP will most likely remain relatively the same or reduce in cost due to this factor, not because of supply and demand.

Nice points though.

 

This guy actually does have a point tbh. I moved all the GP i had on my 2 farming accounts when jagex gave us the *warning*. And was planning for gold to rise before I sold it for some extra profit.

Very nice and detailed overview

 

Economics 101 Supply v Demand
High supply -> Low demand due to over supply = Price drop
High demand -> Low supply due to over demanding = Price rise

 

Do you also know that Jagex is removing botted cash from the accounts?

The price is going up, and I feel it as a seller, so your thoughts are wrong.

 

Coming who does not buy or sell gold, you "know" a lot. If you would have done your research bulk gold buyers are finding it very hard to get gold right now.

supply<demand

/endthread

 

Price of gold wont go up.

Amount of gold leaving the game < Amount of gold being put back in

 

You have got a point mate but still many gold farmers sell ther gp weekly they dont wait til tey have a large amount gp will stay the same for now maybe it will drop only time will tell. Just depends on the competition on sythe and gold markets to sell gold.

 

Just a few months ago it was at .80/m.

Now its .45/m.

More and more kids want to make money and here about how "RS gold iz quik mon3y brAh" and join in on the market. This begins the cruel, cruel system of supply and demand. RS gold will not go up.

 

that's actually the reason gp prices didn't skyrocket yet.

 

It is interesting how much the opinions vary... will gold rise? Or will it get even cheaper, like the OP suggests. Only time will tell

 

It will get cheaper, IMO. Time will tell, but history tells more. Have you seen what happened to the WoW gold prices?

 

What evidence do you have that there is a decrease in the # of legitimate gold-buying players? If you're right that gold buyers have left the game, then yes the price will remain the same-ish. But the decrease in # of people playing on the homepage is almost all bots, not real players. There's no evidence that the # of players has decreased.

 

Yeah , but you also have to think about the # of real players that left because of the # of bots . . . They didn't want to play a game that had hardly any social activity left . . . .