Need a merchant or math genius

Hey guys. I need some advice here...

I started flipping items at the GE about a month or so ago and got good at it really fast and so far it's been making me lots of money. With the rumours about bonus XP weekend coming up, and hearing stories about how every bonus xp weekend prices for supplies skyrocket, I decided to try my hand at a long term investment (a few weeks). I bought about 12k clean ranarr weeds as the chart at the time had bottomed out and was starting to rise, yet the price on the GE at the time was 3600. I've been sitting on these herbs for weeks now and they have been steadily dropping in price and I've been losing tons of cash... As soon as bonux XP weekend was announced they started to climb back up for a few days, which was great..But now they are fucking crashing again! This is my first investment merchanting experience and so far it is turning out to be a total disaster so I need some advice on what to do. Basically I see 2 options here..

1) Hold onto the herbs right up to the weekend, then dump them for the best price I can get (and risk them not selling at all if people have already stocked up on all the herbs they need). I might make back a decent portion of the money I originally spent, but I will still lose a good chunk of cash.

2) Spend even MORE money buying snape grass and water filled vials, and then make 12k prayer pots over the bonux XP weekend to get tons of herblore experience, and then dump the prayer pots for the best price I can get. Last time I checked, prayer pots had gone up and were around 4200 each, so I might be able to make back a large chunk of the original money I spent.


Both options kind of suck, but tbh I don't really have plans for BXP weekend so herblore would at least give me something to do. If anybody has extensive experience in sitting on items overtime like this, I could use your help! Or if you are a math genius and you are reading this and could calculate how much exp I would gain making 12k prayer pots over BXP, that would be awesome and might help me make a decision. My current herblore level is 45. I suck at math so I would prefer not to attempt to calculate this out myself.

 

wanna know a good thing to merch atm??

handcannons, about 2 weeks ago they were 150k, now they dropped to 40k.

i got a feeling there gonna rise again, they cant drop anymore..

 

Herbs and potions have always crashed hard after BXW. I don't suggest keeping them past today or tomorrow. People would rather use their precious bxp minutes on a high-level potion. Ranaars never saw much hope of rising, I'm afraid.

 

Sell the ranars and buy a load of oak planks, I heard last bxp they rose to 2k ea street price!

 

This is due to ArteChaos, I believe they will stay at 40K or possibly drop a little bit more until the script becomes Premium. Then the prices might go up a bit.

On topic though I say you should get your herblore up.

 

Thanks for the advice guys. Would you advise that I just dump them right now though for the best possible price? or should I make the pots instead? I have a feeling they are going to be hard to sell right now, and after BXP I think it might be really hard to sell the prayer potions aswell. I'm kinda stuck on what to do here.

When I sell them, I don't think I'm going to buy anything else to sell (such as the oak planks). I think I will just wait until the weekend is over and then go back to flipping for an immediate profit and make back the money that I lost sitting on these herbs. I'm definitely going to keep all this in mind when the next BXP rolls around because this was my first one and I didn't really know what to expect. It definitely seems that people bought their supplies months in advance this time around, in order to beat the market prices. People are getting smarter godamnit!

Do you have any idea how high I might be able to get my herblore up making 12k prayer potions at level 45 herblore?

 

How much exp is each preyer potion?
Multiply by 12,000
-roughly 1 mil exp, maybe 50k off or so
Then add it to your own exp.

So around 77-79 herblore would be accomplished
This is on single exp.

 

Sell them late thursday night. People will buyout for whatever price is in the GE at last second. Reguardless if the item is crashing.

IMO, I'm waiting to buy items after the weekend, so i can get good deals on everything.

 

This is for single exp though... I am wondering how much I could get making 12k prayer potions over the 10 hour bonus EXP period, starting with a 2.7x multiplier and going down from there every half hour. I could do the math myself, but it would be a pain in the ass because I suck at math. I also don't do herblore ever so I'm not sure how many potions you can make in a half hour (which would be necessary if you are going to calculate for every time the bonus multiplier drops over the 10 hour period).

There is some good advice here but I am still torn about it.... uhggg!!

 

Considering the double exp, i'd say just go with option 2. Good Luck bro.

 

With double exp, you'll probably get to 80 herblore

 

It's risky putting a long term investment into an item that is constantly generated from bots.

 

Yeah I realize that now unfortunately. I would never have invested in an item like that anyways had I not heard so much about raw resources like that skyrocketing around bonus EXP weekend. This is my first time experiencing BXP so I really had no idea what to expect. What a disappointment though!

 

I would go with option 2.
But if I was you I would just hold on them longer

 

I would honestly just hold onto them untill you can get a good price for them without taking a loss. Also for next time you sell them 1-2 days before BXP weekend when people are buying their supplies. If you hold it for too long the other merchers will have dumped thousands upon thousands on the GE.

-Vic