I think i've hit the cap?

alright lads, so lately i been botting the shit out of abby demons, and botted about 25 whips in a week, now ive gone over 25 hours, without getting a whip drop. thats pretty much physically impossible.

i usually get 2-5 whips aday depending on luck, but 25 hours of actual killing without 1 whip, seems extremely fishy to me. reckon they've made some form of drop cap for specific items?

 

It's possible, but I haven't heard of it before.

 

I doubt so..
just a matter of real bad luck

 

Or maybe you are extremely unlucky for just the one day?

 

quite possibly, just seems rather suspicious to me

 

I am on 20 trips of barrows without a barrows drop, its just bad luck lol

 

i've leggitly got 82 whip drop's so 25 ain't a cap i did mine in 2005 though :S

 

25 isnt my total quantity of whips, im saying ive 25 in a week, and now im not getting any, so i think theres a possibility the whip drop cap is 25/week. just a idea however.

 

You are lucky to get an average of 3 a day to be honest.

Many probably don't get one a day

 

It's all the luck of the draw. If you didn't get any drops now, you probably will get more later. Continue botting like normal, your luck will change soon.

 

Maybe the settings on your bot got messed up and it hasn't been picking up the whips? Just a thought.

 

wouldnt exactly call it lucky, botting 24/7. so its pretty much expected to receive that quantity.

 

I've been on a 43 run dead barrows streak, so you're just being a tad unlucky

 

Yes, it is possible that JaGeX could have nerfed the drop rates but I highly doubt it. RuneScape is a game that's based on luck.

 

i check for whip drops in my adventures log, whether or not you actually picked it up, if the abbysal demon dropped it, it will appear in your adventure log

 

No, I believe you're just statistically unlucky. Remember; technically you're never guaranteed anything, no matter how many times you kill a monster. The drop rate is simply the probability of getting a certain drop in one kill. They're rarity is considered 'Rare' with a drop rate of 1/512 (estimation by RuneScape Wiki).

Resource(s):
http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Abyssal_demon

 

valid point, however going by that very accurate figure of 1/512 as i assume it was from sosolid2k 10,000 abbysal demon log, from atleast 25 hours of killing them, i have averaged i believe 65 kills/hour.

= atleast 1625 kills approximately, statistically beyond conventional logic

 

I do not know who contributed to that drop log. But the assumed formula is the probability that a monster will drop the item at least once in x kills is 1 minus the probability that it will not drop that item in x kills.

Ugh this reminds me of the quote by Edward Gibbon, "The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.".

 

i went even longer without a whip drop

 

ive had a similar thing happen while botting cave horrors it seems like a i get 5 masks and then it just stops and i wont get a drop for ages