In my own defence, Theory of Random Generation (Drop Party Chest)

To the mods: I have no clue where to put this please move as you see fit

My point: THERE ARE NO HOT ZONES, RUNNING TO HOT ZONES WILL WASTE PRECIOUS SECONDS, RUNNING TO OTHERS IN THAT WALK IN WASTES PRECIOUS SECONDS, JUST KEEP POPPING.

Recently I wrote a Falador Drop Party Chest guide (link in my sig) with what I believed to be new information that contradicted what people before me have said. I backed my claims with experiments that I myself have performed and challenge all those who do not believe me to perform themselves.

I am writing this to explain my theory as to how the chest works.

My theory works something like this, (basic idea)
There are a certain number of items in the chest, and each is assigned a value. Everytime somebody pops a balloon a random value is generated which may result in one of the drops in the chest, or nothing at all. Thus, it doesn't matter which balloon you pop, but rather how many you pop. This is much like a monster drop, a monster drop is determined AFTER the monster has been killed and not predetermined when it spawns.

This contradicts what people have been saying, each balloon contains a predetermined item, and if you pop that specific balloon you get that specific item.

My observations,
A common claim is that the first item in the chest will always appear in the first balloon, this supports pre-determined
I went to a large drop party in world 6, in the chest were approx 20 items in this order
- zamorak helm, zamorak plate, zamorak legs, zamorak kite, guthix helm, guthix plate, guthix legs, guthix kite, a bunch of unoted oak logs some noob threw in.
For the sake of collecting data, (and knowing that with 200 people in the room I had no chance anyways ) I watched the chest as the balloons fell.
**Now for those of you who dont know, as an item is gotten, it disappears from the chest.**, to my suprise, instead of the z helm going first followed by the plate, followed by the legs, ect. the first thing to go were some oak logs, followed by a random order of the zamorak and guthix pieces. this supports random generation and not pre-determined.

In other guides I also read that "If another person comes, you should run towards them because the item usually lands around them"
well doesn't this just prove my point? The item lands around them because they are popping the balloons around them and one of those balloons generates the prize, duh>?

My experiment which I challenge all disbelievers to repeat -
Drop trade as usual but instead of locating the account you want the plates to end up in the front near the chest, locate it in the back. You will see the exact same results you get in the so called "hot zones". As long as nobody pops in the hot zone its garunteed to appear in the cold zone, and even if somebody does pop in the hot zone, the odds are in favor of whoever pops more.

EDIT IN - I forgot this
Why does it seem like all the items are falling in one place?
The answer is simple! Thats because everybody chooses to stand there. The cold zones appear because the odds of not generating the reward in that many pops is very slim. Its that simple!

So, before you say trash about my guide, that its ripped, that its a ton of bull, that it doesn't make sense at all, and that I have no experience whatsoever, please take the time to try this yourself and you will see who is right.

 

Very good point. I knew for fact that the hot zones where total bull. I however did not know exactly how the Party Room worked, but this theory seems likely to be true.

 

Out of 5 times Ive done a drop there 3/5 were in fact in the hot zone and 2/5 I lost to noobs =/

So I rather continue doing it the same way =D

 

ah, i see i forgot to mention something, I've edited in a highlighted part, if you would care to read

 

Good observation. Some of the things you guys do really helps me out

 

good theory

 

The items aren't predetermined to be in certain balloons. They appear randomly based on the order the balloons are popped. I'll explain it better in my own thread.

You can find it here: http://www.sythe.org/showthread.php?t=455018

 

I've done 15 rune plates in one day in between same accounts same world. All successful.
I just tried this with 5.
Started in the middle for2
in back for 3.
Lost all 5 plates.
Tested.
Failed.
by the time I made my way near the "hot spots" those balloons had dissipated, and that's where my plates where every time.

 

good theory but just to tell you... its impossible for a computer to make anything random. but interesting theory and i enjoyed reading it

 

Very good guide liked it lol

 

It's true. There's no hot zone

 

you have some good points there

 

This may be true, next time i go to a party I will try

 

its not impossible. Computers can generate random numbers very easily. (Well, it is not really random, but for almost all purposes it is random.)


This i a quite good theory, but those who believe in hot zones strongly will not change their minds I do not think.

 

The same people believe that there are item duplicating glitches, ways to RWT large amounts without using BH or Party Room, ways to get from 1 to 99 experience in a few hours, ways for a low to medium level to make 1 billion gold a week, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy. They believe it because reality isn't as inviting. Such people are ripe for the plucking: easy marks for scammers.

There isn't much that can be done about those people, since they don't want to believe the truth when the easy fictitious way sounds better. About all that can be done is try to educate those who don't know better but are willing to learn and accept the truth.

 

nice guide, i like it very much thanks

 

Its not bull..

Every time i transfer i always get the item in the hot zone... and i already tried going to the back before...and i had to pop like 15 balloons just to get one plate. When i am in the " red zone " i normally get the plate after popping 1-2 balloons.

 

coincidence.. how many have you dropped ? i've done over 600 now..
600 sample size kthx

 

LoL nice find, me and my mate did just try a square of the party room and got what the hell when it didnt appear there,

 

In 40 tries, I never had to pop more than 8 balloons to get a single item, with 3 or 4 being normal, and I've stood in the far back corners on half of them.

There are no hot zones. None. Zero. Zip. The hot-zone that USED to exist was fixed after about 10 days. It's now based on the order balloons are popped.