Balthazar’s Big Raffle - Probability of Winning

This will let you figure out what your probability of winning the raffle is on any given day. IT IS CALCULATOR FRIENDLY (assuming you aren't entering a very large number of tickets)! If you are only entering one ticket, the expression simplifies to n/x. That is, it simplifies to the number of prizes being awarded divided by the number of total entries by everyone.

Good luck!



Note: I just read the FAQ for the raffle on RuneScape’s website, and it turns out you can only win up to ONE prize per raffle. This complicates things a bit. Without information on how other people are entering the raffle (i.e. how many tickets each are entering individually) and the order in which the tickets are drawn, we can neither solve for the exact nor expected probability of winning. HOWEVER, this formula is still useful. The probability this formula gives is your MINIMUM probability of winning. Your actual probability on any given day may be considerably higher.

Example: Let's say you want those deathtouched darts (20,000 sets given out), and let's say 200,000 tickets have been entered into the raffle that day. If 2 of those tickets are yours, then you have at least a 19% chance of winning a set of darts. Not bad eh? For camparison, 1 ticket would give you at least a 10% chance, 3 tickets would give you at least a 27.1% chance, and 4 tickets would give you at least a 34.4% chance. ​

 

Nice guide/entry thing, but how much are the prizes worth and how much are the raffle tickets (might be earned idk havent heard of this before)? With that known you can see your chances of profiting.

 

Wow those odds are actually ridiculously high. Is this raffle f2p as well?

 

I doubt it, F2p can't use godswords, warpriest, silverhawk boots or deathtouched darts.

 

Ugh I really just want Deathtouched darts, just 1 set. I'll be so happy. If I use 8 tickets what are my odds? Don't feel like doing the math lmao.

I feel like not even 200k tickets will be entered for them, but we'll have to see I guess!

Also, would I have a better chance of winning if I entered all the raffles with as many possible tickets (likely 8-10)...or if I saved all of my tickets for the very last dart raffle and then put in like 50-60 ?

keep in mind I'm literally only going for a set of darts. It's all I want.

 

Raffle tickets are free. You can learn more about the raffle here.

For something like the deathtouched darts, you would need to know the expected value of the drop of whatever monster you will be killing with it. I’m pretty sure this is available, or pretty easily estimated, for most boss monsters.

Pretty sure it is just p2p.

I just read the FAQ for the raffle on RuneScape’s website, and it turns out you can only win up to ONE prize per raffle. This complicates things a bit. Without information on how other people are entering the raffle (i.e. how many tickets each are entering individually) and the order in which the tickets are drawn, we can neither solve for the exact nor expected probability of winning. HOWEVER, this formula is still useful. The probability this formula gives is your MINIMUM probability of winning. Your actual probability on any given day may be considerably higher.

Let’s do some math for those deathtouched darts with only 100k entries. Here is your minimum probability of winning for various different numbers of tickets entered.

1 ticket = 20.0%
2 tickets = 36.0%
3 tickets = 48.8%
4 tickets = 59.0%
5 tickets = 67.2%
6 tickets = 73.8%
7 tickets = 79.9%
8 tickets = 83.2%
9 tickets = 86.6%
10 tickets = 89.3%
50 tickets = 99.999%

To have a minimum probability of at least 99% chance to win, you will need 21 tickets. At least 97% would take 16 tickets, and at least 95% would take 14 tickets.

Keep in mind, the more tickets each person enters on average, the higher your probability of winning gets. That’s because each person can only win one prize. Hence, if a person has one of their tickets drawn, all of his remaining tickets are also essentially removed from the pool of remaining tickets.

 

Nike, you are the man. Thank you for working all that out.

Looks like I should be able to snag some Darts then, if I save all my tickets for them!

 

If you want to maximize your expected number of darts won, you should probably just enter the maximum number of tickets per week. If you are getting two tickets a day, then enter 8 on the first Thursday, and 14 on all three of the remaining Thursdays. This should let you get at minimum an expected 3.7 sets of darts. Since the actual expected value is higher, there's a pretty good chance you'll get 4 sets.

Your probability of not getting any darts by doing this is very low, about zero.

Remember, all of this is assuming 100k entries.

 

Took your advice and won darts <3

 

I also won darts as a matter of fact, with your advice. Thanks, gonna go do some nex now.

 

Glad to hear you both won!