BTC predictions over the next 7 days

Hi. Trying to figure out this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg5ztgCzm1g10zm2g25zcv

It would seem that one could reasonably predict that if you were dealing with .5 BTC or less and you purchased it right this second and held onto it until about July 9th you would lose less than the equivalent of $20 USD.

Does everyone agree with this?

PLEASE do not post "there's no true way to know" or something equally stupid, just looking for insight here.

The way I look at the chart there's even a possibility it might rise. But making predictions on the ups and downs of the chart is a very basic way to do this -- bigger questions exist.

How will the 4th of July affect bitcoin? How many 4th of July related things deal with BTC?

The selling of the SR seizure -- the article was released awhile ago. Do you think that, until the auction, the news will have little further affect on BTC price? It was steadily declining for awhile but as of late I think it's hard to attribute any dips to the auction.


Any input is much appreciated, try to provide some reasoning behind your thoughts if possible.

tl;dr -- if one were to spend like $350 in BTC, would one have a minimum of $300 in BTC a week from now

 

I would agree- BTC isn't as volatile as people think, the potential losses you take from holding onto it for an extended period of time really isn't as bad as people assume.

 

Everyone hope to rise,no one know will it go in that way

 

So do you think it will rise over the next week?

Obviously everyone hopes their currency will be worth money...your response isn't really substantial.

 

What from the chart makes you think this?

 

Only the daily coming news can give you little bit information how the price will go at the day.
No matter what charts/bubbles etc. peoples are watching,the market is unpredictable just because there is already big players with huge amounts of bitcoins who can manipulate the market anytime they wish.
The bitcoin price depends on you,me,and everyone who is using it.
The bitcoin itself worth nothing,but the "search" of it making it valuable.
I can't tell you it will rise or not,because that won't be something substantial but only speculation.
Investing in bitcoin currently with big money without reselling but holding seems a bit risk to me.
That's just my point view.
*Edit: If we just follow the simply logic and how the gouverments control the world,and peoples believe on bitcoin just because they won't be able to control it is absurd.
Either the project will be restricted in many ways,or there will be control on it.
Believe me,the bankers/gouverment won't let peoples exchange money anonymous with hard way of tracking and without paying fees.
This is just a dream which every single bitcoiner believe in...
There is taxes and fees even before Christ and believe me,project as Bitcoin won't change the history.
It may bring minor changes,but not drastic.
I am true believer in bitcoin but i am also realistic.
Once again,this is just my point view,you don't need to follow/believe on it.

 

I don't see a ton of movement coming in the next few days. There aren't many events on the horizon that will have a strong price impact on BTC. The market tends to greatly over-react to news/rumor, and this leads to the big price swings.

The major events which can have an effect on BTC price in the near future:

- Information on future of DPR's personal seized coins (150,000+ BTC)
- MtGox proceedings
- China BTC regulation / policy
- New large companies integrating BTC

Basically the same stuff as always. Prices seem to be fairly solid right now, but you never know. I'd say it's nearly impossible to predict the direction right now.

I'd say 45% Bearish
55% Bullish

In the short term.

 

Seems my OP was..almost correct. If I'm not mistaken in about a week we've went from 655 to 630~.

Looks to be a pretty steady decline.

 

With the recent auction of seized coins from the Silk Road, as I have read on the news, I don't think they're heading the right way.

Furthermore, bitcoins are a virtual currency. It's value is hence depended on the majority's popularity or trend on the item. Do you still remember the Tulip Boom or something along the lines where Tulips were actually used to trade for properties or land? And yes, tulips, as in the tulips, the type of flower.

Bitcoins are similar, if there are people trading for it, and there's a demand for it, and there's a supply for it, then there will be a market for it. And when there's a market for it, there's a value to it.

Imagine yourself drawing a picture on a piece of paper now, or painting a simple portrait. Now is there demand for your piece of masterwork? Don't think so. Is there a supply for your masterwork? Only one. Is there a market for your masterwork? Doubt so. Hence, your value of your masterpiece? Hard to just sell it off like that.

You get where I am going? The prices of Bitcoins can fluctuate hard, you just need to be smart in predicting what will happen in the future. With so many stuff going on, and your real life dilemmas you have to deal with, it's very hard to catch up on one thing unless you're really that good.

 

lets all boycott the fiat system so btc coin worth more XD