Invest or Wait (Runescape Dicontinued Item Market Experts Read!)

CopyPasta From
http://villavu.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1030072#post1030072

 

I'd personally buy a rare, you can always sell that after the botnuke.

 

It would be wiser to buy other items and try to flip them or you can try doing short-term merchanting on other items.

Investing in a rare is always for a long term investment and the only reason why you should invest in a rare is that you are going to be away from runescape for a long period of time.

 

I'd say it would be best to buy red chinchompas since they rose to around 2K each after the first bot nuke and they're really high demand most of the time.

 

Sold my Santa today for a loss since i bought it about a year ago.
In real terms however, I'm probably break even, as the price of rsgp has since increased.
Anyways, i invested all of my 90m in commodities I expect to almost double by a few weeks affter optimus.

I'd invest in a rare if you don't play a lot, dont need the cashpile, and in it for the long haul.

GL

 

No. Just no.

Rares have crashed. When? After the first bot nuke. I don't have to explain why. Rares will NEVER rise after a bot nuke. Not the first time someone gave similar advice though.

The reason rares have currently taken a dip is because of speculations on when the 2nd bot nuke would arrive. Rares are currently at their lowest price since Free Trade. And they won't go up any higher until the next bot nuke is confirmed. The next bot nuke, this is my opinion, is when they change the whole combat styles, the one where you can sign up for beta. People haven't realized it, but I think it will take bots out for a while, I'm sure it would include Simba, even if it's going to be temporary. The reason rares crashes after a bot nuke is because less supply comes into the game. Supply obviously cannot balance the demand. Thus demand > supply until bots are back. And when demand > supply, that means the items used to train your skills will skyrocket. Less Planks, less herbs etc. coming into the game. Which means the price would go up. Merchers takes advantage of this, they heavily stock on supplies because they know demand would outbalance supply eventually, all they do is speed it up. So not long after bot nuke, you'll see supplies rising and rares crashing. Simply because supplies would be a better investment. On september there will be another Bonus Exp Weekend. So shortly before it, supplies will rise and people dumps their rares to hoard supplies or simply use it to train their skill(s).

tl;dr Buy supplies that are heavily used on BXPW. It's a lot safer and it's a guaranteed rise. The only downside is you may have to find something that's a little more underground that not everyone hoards before BXPW to maximize profits. I'm currently buying up supplies that will triple, yes I said it, on BXPW. You have to observe their street prices on BXPW and how low they would hit. Once they're at their lowest buying point, start buying. Hold it for a few months and sell it on BXPW. An example is Mahogany Planks, they're currently around 2k each. They hit a peak of 2.7K street price on BXPW. They sell very fast, so there's a 30% profit if you wait long enough. But for me, the profit margin is too small.

 

Investing could lead in a big profit, but the chance is there that it wouldn't raise that much, it's all up to you.

If you're sure the item will get more rare, ofcourse do it. but you'll need some good facts to be ensured that the price won't drop.

 

I thought you hated Sythe.org Yohojo

Don't invest in a rare.

Invest in common commodities obtained primarily by bots that there will be a shortage of after the nuke (chinchompas etc)

 

Yea everyone seems to be saying no to rares, yes to investing in common items and wait.

Iron ores look good :], natures too possible, except a lot of the nature bots are simba (which I don't expect to die)

 

Exactly, rares have already crashed. It's not like they're going to drop much lower... and even if they do, they'll end up going up again. GP is volatile, and you could just as easily see an increase in the price of it as a decrease in the price of it. But rares always hold the same IRL $ value. A blue partyhat a few years ago was worth the same it is now. Eventhough rare prices change, so do GP prices.

 

Not the safest move. There are a ton of them in the game and they won't rise, if they do it won't be much, on BXPW.

Yes they will. You still have a lot to learn and know. When PVP worlds came out. You do know Phats were literally junk. Phats were traded for 100%, or near, junk. Before Free Trade. Partyhats were around 400-600M a hat, they were buying instantly 5% below mid weeks before Free Trade. And 5% was the lowest you could sell them for at that time. So partyhats sold for less than 500M before Free Trade. I have a rank in R Quark which would show you that I've been observing the rare market and I even participated in it, where I merched. Don't try to school me when it comes to rares.

People who says "invest in phats it will rise long term". They're the lazy people who fails to observe. Before bot nuke, a red phat was around 2B cash. Would it have been wise to invest in a red because "it will rise long term"? No. Whoever would do that would regret it as it's already almost half of its price back then. Your hopes for it to get anywhere near that will never really come, if it does, it will probably be too late. These are basically people who are satisfied with a mere 2% interest in their bank account.

Now for the ones that are constantly active, I'm sure yohojo is interested in this method, would rather make a profit of a short-mid term investment. Rather than an extremely risky, extremely long-term investment in rare(s). Why buy a mask set, an extremely volatile and risky market, where it would probably crash basing it on past events. I could, and I will, at least double my money when BXPW comes. You really think you can double your money by the time BXPW comes with a Partyhat? No. And that's why rares are crashing because it's a better investment to invest in BXPW supplies. There are players with tens of billions in masks, partyhats etc. If one of them decides to dump and invest in other things... Game Over. Remember the first crash masks took when Acid dumped billions in masks? If those people really wanted to merch big, they would dump their rares, invest and hoard other things.

 

I'm not telling you you're wrong, and I wouldn't expect to double my money with a rare, but finding items that will double your money by BXP is 1). Time consuming and 2). you need experience. Not all of us have that experience merching, so for us, buying a rare, not a phat (400M isn't enough to buy them), at the right time will be more profitable and rewarding than searching for hours to find nothing.

 

I'd of thought that rares will crash after a bot-nuke.. As less GP being produced means less GP in the game, thus making the items decrease in value.

 

Yes you were, you were against my statement and you were going on about how rares will rise... after bot nuke. The one time rares would never rise. Take a loot at the G.E history and you'll see phats have only been crashing since the first bot nuke.

Only experience you need is to know what the prices for the supplies were on the previous BXPW(s). It is not time consuming. I wrote down 2 items that will rise at a minimum of 20% and 30% respectively, but giving it out would put more people at risk as there would be more dumping. So I decided not to. Think of it like this "What's the fastest and most efficient way to train X Skill". And there's your answer.

Read back what I said.

If he would buy rares, it would probably be a mask set since he can afford one. I never said a Partyhat, those were examples. They follow a similar trend. If Phats double in price tomorrow, Masks would follow a similar trend.

I already said that rares will crash even further after bot nuke as anyone in their right mind would dump their rare(s) and invest in supplies, supplies that comes at a much slower rate into the game. Not to mention with BXPW coming closer where it would be used a lot more.


You previously said:

Want to check again? Green Partyhat is currently sitting at 1B. That's under $600. A yellow a few months ago was more than that in IRL $ Value. Yellow was around 1.05B+ when gp was valued at 0.65.

Contrary to popular belief it is false. There is more than enough GP in the game and GP pretty much gets recycled as it goes onto another player when traded. More GP comes into the game than goes even without bots, from alching alone. It's just that people moves on from their rares and moves onto something that will actually rise, which are supplies. They follow a trend, and that trend will not change for a long time. If you don't follow the trend, expect a loss.

 

I'm not saying they're going to rise, we can have two different opinions...

either way, my point about the rares being the same price still stands. You can't expect them to always be perfectly matched up, because markets have up and down trends, but look at blue Partyhat prices from a few years ago, and look at them now. They are the same general price. (100m for $6/m, or 1000m for .6/m)...

 

as others have said, the best bet is to try and invest in somewhat common items (but no so common that everyone will be investing in them) and waiting until BXP to dump em

 

I'd personally never buy a rare in a situation like this. It is too risky. Buy a resource item which bots continually supply us with at low prices. No bots = less resources. Resulting in a huge rise.

Example: Nature runes went from 97gp to 300+gp in the bot nuke late last year.

 

I'd personally never buy a rare in a situation like this. It is too risky. Buy a resource item which bots continually supply us with at low prices. No bots = less resources. Resulting in a huge rise.

Example: Nature runes went from 97gp to 300+gp in the bot nuke late last year.

 

I'm not sure what your point even is. Yohojo came here asking for advice on what to merch to profit in a few months.

You're talking about how partyhats are stable long term, in terms of IRL $ Value. Even though they clearly aren't with these updates going on. He's looking to make a profit, not to maintain the same amount of $ worth of RSGP on his account.

You keep failing to take into account all the updates that's affecting rare prices. Back in the day there were a lot of legit players. Now it's all bots. With a 2nd bot nuke coming around, the whole economy has changed. People's goals aren't to get a partyhat anymore. It's to make more and more money. Holding onto it during bot nuke is the worst thing you can do. Why would anyone invest into rares when supplies will have a much stronger demand than rares. It will take priority and overthrow rares till bots are back to bring the supply back down.

 

So yeah a large majority are saying NO to discontinued and to SMARTLY invest into common goods, hmm, any idea on good F2P ones and a basis on why?