Need someone with good phat knowledge

Ok so basically just staked my entire bank, roughly 600m, so I won then decided to purchase a yellow party hat, as i'ts been over a year since i had a phat, so as you can imagine i was pretty excited, but I just don't enjoy runescape alot anymore, if i lost i was going to quit completely, but i'm having a 6-8 month break, I just paid 1048m for this hat maybe 4 hours ago, so yeah if I came back in 8 months time, would it be expected for this hat to have risen in price, as phats surely can't go down forever, due to no more entering the game and people getting banned etc??? Please post feedback and don't just put what you think, I want facts please

 

Yep it'll go up... 6 -8 months is long term enough... Unless bots get completely nuked

 

bots will never be completely nuked so you'll be fine

 

Sounds good then, how much you think it would rise in that time?

 

It will rise most likely probably 100Mish nothing huge

Edit: 800th post!

 

I don't think so. It will most likely rise more... Party Hats can fluctuate fairly heavily. You will either make 200m or lose around 100m It's probably more likely to be a gain though.
Just my two cents worth.

 

Duly is right, it will most likly go up more then 200 with a very small chance @ a loss

 

8 months is a long time however. The market can change dramastically.. You get things like inflation. Tbh I wouldn't buy a phat, I would just sell the GP now and quit for 8 months. It's safer, plus you get the money NOW.

 

I'll go ahead and say at least half of the users that have posted either cannot afford a phat and/or have never had one.

You cannot really predict the price of phats as there are a wide range of different things that can cause them to go up or down.

If you've noticed, after the bot nuke, everything pretty much crashed. Phats dropped around 30% in value. It is still a good investment as it didn't drop as hard as lower rares. Lower rares have dropped over 50% in value. Partyhats could drop just in much as price in the near future. So it could drop another 20%.

Anyway, a big factor to determine its future price is Runescape updates. Some updates causes them to rise, others causes it to crash (Bot nuke). Let's take Squeel of Fortune (Buyable) for example. People panicked and sold all their items that can be obtained via SOF. Items that temporarily crashed were Spiritshields. Others that dropped hard and still continues to would be bandos. Bandos was already hoarded amongst players and a lot comes into the game every hour.

Now, the panic sellers could have sold their items and bought partyhats. Or it also caused some players who did not support it to quit. That means a few partyhats were taken out of the game. Less partyhats = Increase in price right? No. It is all based on demand. New players have no way of being able to afford a partyhat. They'd have to do frost dragons for hundreds of hours. Less partyhats = increase in price only happens if the hoarders decides to in cash their Spirit shards to coins and buy partyhats.

tl;dr
No one can determine the future prices of partyhats. You'd need to know about the updates and know if people with hundreds of millions of spirit shards would be in cashing it soon. Starry has a max pile of spirit shards, if he sold it for over 50B RSGP and bought rares, there's no doubt Phats would rise.

With more and more bots slowly coming back, I predict a slow rise in them soon.

Agreed. I like to think of $'s value constantly going up if you invest it wisely. Also, with bots making a slow come back, prices in gold will drop by the time you're back. Buy it now, find a way to make more money off it. Come back, buy gold from a seller and you'll be able to afford more than just a yellow.

 

Generally the phats continue a slow increase in price. They fluctuate heavily though, and panic selling is a definite factor.

 

Wow thanks for such a detailed explanation this explained so much, I think I'll just see how things plan out then

 

Get your post count up somewhere else.

I highly suggest you ignore this post. He clearly doesn't even know what he is talking about.

Phats haven't been rising since Bot nuke. If it has, it went back down, it's not even called a rise, and it's rock-bottom atm.

No. Panic selling has almost no relation to why it crashes or rises. No one "Panic sells" partyhats. The last time it happened was a year ago before FT was out. Demand has taken a severe hit which came from bots, and it just started falling after bot nuke. If people "Panic sells", then the price of the partyhats would have been a lot lower than its mid, but it's not. You clearly have never owned a partyhat, and do not know anything about its street prices while it crashed. If you were trying to repeat what I said, then you read it wrong. I never said people panic sold partyhats, I said they sold lower rares.

 

It'll defiantly go up. Take it from me, if you're going to quit, DO NOT, and i repeat, DO NOT stake your entire bank and quit. Be wise and sell your yellow partyhat for a rough amount of about $700+. You could quit runescape, while being $700+ richer.

 

Phat prices will go up eventually in rsgp. But rsgp prices ... don't think so.

 

Rares are always going up, Party hats especially.

 

I reckon it would make double if not triple that amount. 8 months is a very long time, I see a healthy profit margin once you return. Don't forgot the account information though!!

 

"facts about the future"
lolk.

 

Yea, around what Duly said, looking at the chart for the price on the ge it seems that it will go up. So I'd also say 200m gain.

 

You'll defo gain ..

 

Thanks everyone for the information, so it looks like I should stick onto this yellow piece of crap for abit haha.